In 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays entered the MLB season widely doubted by most observers—understandable, given that they had finished last in their division just the year before. Yet they defied expectations, posting a strong 94–68 record, capturing the AL East title, and charging all the way to the World Series. They ultimately fell just short, losing 3–4 to the Los Angeles Dodgers and narrowly missing what would have been their first championship in 32 years.
For the Blue Jays, this season was undeniably one of symbolic growth and breakthrough. From last place in the division to within one step of a championship, this “Maple Leaf” ballclub showed tremendous resilience and upside.
Heading into the 2025–2026 offseason, the Blue Jays directly addressed their biggest weakness: the starting rotation. They made two major moves:
- Signing former San Diego Padres ace Dylan Cease to a 7-year, $210 million deal (about $30 million AAV).
- Signing KBO Hanwha Eagles ace Cody Ponce to a 3-year, $30 million deal (about $10 million AAV).
These moves were clearly aimed at raising both the ceiling and depth of the rotation.
According to FanGraphs’ projections as of December 6 (U.S. time), the Blue Jays’ 2026 starting rotation ranks 6th in MLB, placing them firmly in the league’s upper tier. This represents a significant improvement from their 2025 rotation performance: a 4.34 team starter ERA (20th in MLB) and 8.5 starting-pitcher WAR (23rd in MLB).
Overall, the 2025 Blue Jays showcased a powerful offense, but their starting pitching lagged somewhat behind. That’s precisely why, after a strong but ultimately runner-up finish, the front office chose to go all-in on bolstering the rotation during the offseason—hoping that a more complete starting staff can push them one step closer to a World Series title.
In the following, this article will present a systematic breakdown of the Blue Jays’ projected 2026 starting rotation. The full project is planned as three articles, divided into nine sections:
Ps. The 5 starters listed below are based on FanGraphs’ projected rotation.
1️⃣ Start from the overall performance of the 2025 Blue Jays starting pitchers and provide a strengths-and-weaknesses overview.
2️⃣ A profile and performance breakdown of Kevin Gausman.
3️⃣ A profile and performance breakdown of Dylan Cease.
4️⃣ A profile and performance breakdown of Shane Bieber.
5️⃣ A profile and performance breakdown of Trey Yesavage.
6️⃣ A profile and performance breakdown of Cody Ponce.
7️⃣ The core strengths this starting rotation is expected to offer.
8️⃣ Potential risks and weaknesses this rotation may reveal in real-game situations.
9️⃣ Summary and outlook: a projection of the Blue Jays’ overall pitching strength in 2026.
Among these, Sections 1️⃣–3️⃣ are included in this first article; Sections 4️⃣–6️⃣ will appear in the second article; Sections 7️⃣–9️⃣ will be presented in the third article as a consolidated analysis and forward-looking outlook.
With that framework in place, let’s dive into the main topic: breaking down this Blue Jays starting rotation and attempting a more precise projection of their pitching outlook for the 2026 season.
1️⃣ Overall strengths and weaknesses of the 2025 Blue Jays starting staff
Below are the Blue Jays’ 2025 starting-pitcher aggregate numbers:
- Innings pitched: 840 2/3 IP (15th of 30)
- ERA: 4.34 (20th of 30)
- WHIP: 1.27 (17th of 30)
- BAA (Batting Average Against): .249 (20th of 30)
- K%: 22.2% (15th of 30)
- BB%: 7.2% (8th of 30)
- FIP: 4.46 (24th of 30)
- K/BB: 3.07 (8th of 30)
- LOB%: 74.5% (11th of 30)
- SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): 4.13 (13th of 30)
- WAR: 8.5 (23rd of 30)
Taken together, the Blue Jays’ 2025 starting staff ranked roughly in the lower-middle tier of MLB. In key metrics that measure pitching quality—ERA, WHIP, and FIP—their rankings hovered in the middle-to-lower range. Their starting-pitcher WAR of 8.5 placed them 23rd in MLB, which likewise can’t be considered impressive.
That said, the Blue Jays’ rotation was not without its bright spots. In particular, their strikeout rate (K%) and walk rate (BB%) ranked 15th and 8th respectively, showing that their starters did a solid job of generating whiffs and limiting free passes. Overall, the “underlying skill set” of this group was quite solid; with improvements in suppressing hits and limiting damage in key situations, this staff had (and still has) the potential to level up into a genuine upper-tier rotation.
One notable point: the five pitchers who logged the most innings as starters for Toronto in the regular season were:
- Kevin Gausman – 193 IP
- Chris Bassitt – 169 1/3 IP
- José Berríos – 164 IP
- Max Scherzer – 85 IP
- Eric Lauer – 74 IP
In the postseason, however, the Blue Jays shifted to a four-man rotation:
- Kevin Gausman – 29 2/3 IP
- Trey Yesavage – 26 IP
- Shane Bieber – 17 2/3 IP
- Max Scherzer – 14 1/3 IP
Among these four, aside from ace Kevin Gausman, none were long-term regular-season workhorses in the rotation. Shane Bieber was acquired mid-season via trade from the Cleveland Guardians. Max Scherzer returned to the rotation only during the ALCS after missing time due to injury. And Trey Yesavage’s story is even more remarkable—he opened the year in High-A, then rocketed up the system to reach the majors and ultimately delivered big-time performances in the World Series. He was arguably the Blue Jays’ biggest surprise of the year.
Meanwhile, regular-season mainstays Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer were moved to the bullpen in October, indicating the coaching staff’s concerns about their stability in high-leverage situations. This evolution of the rotation reflects how the organization assessed its pitching depth and future direction: the Jays opted for in-season trade upgrades and then doubled down over the winter by spending heavily on Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce, making it clear that the goal is a deeper, more competitive rotation in 2026.
2️⃣ Kevin Gausman – Pitching profile and overall performance
The 2025 season was Kevin Gausman’s fourth year with the Blue Jays (2022–2025). Over these four seasons, he has started 30+ games and thrown at least 170 innings every year. His ERA has consistently remained under 4.00 (3.59 in 2025). Over this span, he has accumulated a 16.9 WAR, averaging about 4.25 WAR per season—clear-cut ace-level production. Within the Blue Jays rotation, he is the very definition of “durable” and “reliable.”
Gausman’s control is one of his biggest weapons. For four straight years, his walk rate (BB%) has stayed below 7.5%, while his strikeout rate (K%) has consistently sat above 20%. Although his strikeout rates in 2024–2025 weren’t as eye-popping as in 2022–2023 (when his K% topped 28%), his overall performance hasn’t really declined. In fact, in 2025 he held opponents to a .215 batting average, the best mark of his four seasons in Toronto—showing that even if he’s “not striking out the world” to the same extent, he’s still suppressing quality contact at an elite level through precise command and pitch execution.
Over the last two seasons, Gausman’s pitch mix has become even more streamlined, essentially built around two primary weapons: his four-seam fastball and splitter. These two pitches accounted for a combined 86.2% usage in 2024, and an even higher 91.2% in 2025. For a starting pitcher to rely so heavily on just two pitches is actually fairly uncommon.
Within that structure, his approach has subtly shifted—he’s been attacking the strike zone more aggressively. This year, his zone% climbed to 52.5%, noticeably higher than the sub-51% marks he posted from 2022 to 2024. Interestingly, even though his raw velocity didn’t jump (and his splitter actually lost about 1.1 mph on average), his overall swinging-strike rate still climbed to 24.5%, up from 21.0% the year before. The key? His splitter’s average vertical drop increased to 33.8 inches in 2025 (about 85.9 cm), compared to 30.9 inches (about 78.4 cm) in 2024. With that extra drop, hitters struggled even more to square him up, despite seeing a more attack-oriented pitch plan.
From a strategic standpoint, this looks like an adjustment to the aging curve—Gausman turns 35 next year, an age where raw stuff typically starts to trend downward. Rather than chasing pure swing-and-miss, he seems to be shifting toward a model of “pounding the zone and inducing weak contact,” aiming to preserve his ability to log heavy workloads and extend both his seasonal and career longevity as a high-value, innings-eating ace.
Looking ahead to 2026, Kevin Gausman is still expected to anchor the rotation as the No. 1 starter. The reasoning is straightforward: he has been remarkably consistent, and his ability to shoulder a large innings load relieves pressure on the bullpen and gives the coaching staff greater tactical flexibility.
With Gausman at the top, the Blue Jays have a solid foundation upon which the rest of their rotation can build.
3️⃣ Dylan Cease – Pitching profile and overall performance
Now we come to Dylan Cease, the high-octane arm the Blue Jays landed from free agency after his 2025 season with the San Diego Padres. Toronto committed seven years and $210 million to him—a clear indication that this was a marquee rotation upgrade.
In 2025, the 29-year-old Cease made 32 starts and threw 168 innings for the Padres, posting an 8–12 record with a 4.55 ERA—a noticeable jump from his 3.47 mark the year before. That regression naturally showed up in his advanced metrics as well: his WAR dropped from 4.7 in 2024 to 3.4 in 2025. At first glance, it looks like a step backward.
But a closer look reveals that his raw stuff hasn’t really declined. In 2025, his strikeout rate (K%) actually ticked up to 29.8% (from 29.4%), his four-seam fastball averaged 97.1 mph (up from 96.9 mph), and his spin rate remained outstanding at 2550+ rpm. In terms of pure stuff and whiff generation, he’s essentially the same pitcher he was the year before.
So why the worse run prevention? Two main reasons stand out:
- Walk rate spike: His BB% climbed to 9.8% in 2025, up from 8.5%, reflecting shakier command.
- Location issues: His primary breaking pitches (notably his slider and knuckle curve) more frequently leaked toward the middle of the zone, while his fastball tended to ride too high. The result was more hard contact and more damage on mistakes.
This shows up clearly in his long-ball numbers: his HR% rose from 2.36% in 2024 to 2.91% in 2025, a 0.55 percentage-point jump that translated into more home runs allowed and, in turn, more runs on the board.
In particular, Cease’s knuckle curve underperformed compared to past seasons. Opponents hit .344 against it in 2025 (vs. .280 the year before), and their wOBA against the pitch spiked to .424 (vs. .308 in 2024). It’s also worth noting that he increasingly used that curve as a weapon against left-handed hitters—but given the poor results, its usage rate against lefties will likely be dialed back in 2026.
On the other hand, his changeup has historically been quite solid—and for many right-handed pitchers, the changeup is a primary tool against lefty bats. Yet Cease has barely thrown his changeup over the past two years, with just a 1.1% usage rate in 2025. Considering how ineffective the knuckle curve was against lefties this year, there’s a strong chance he’ll reintroduce the changeup more prominently in 2026 as a safer, more reliable option versus left-handed hitters.
Another crucial data point: Cease’s xERA (Expected ERA)—which aims to strip out defensive effects—was just 3.46 in 2025, compared to his actual 4.55 ERA. For context, his xERA in 2024 was 3.31, only 0.15 lower than in 2025. This suggests a clear gap between his true pitching quality and actual results in 2025; in other words, his ERA was inflated by factors beyond just his own execution.
Team defense helps explain some of that gap. In 2025, the Padres’ defensive value (Def) checked in at -0.5 (20th in MLB); in 2024 it was -8.5, also 20th. By contrast, the Blue Jays led MLB in Def in both 2024 and 2025, with values consistently above +35. Moving from a bottom-third defense to an elite one gives Cease a strong chance to see his run-prevention numbers “correct” downward in Toronto.
Of course, it wouldn’t be fair to blame everything on defense. Cease’s elevated runs allowed also stemmed from his own issues: too many walks, inconsistent locations on both his fastball and breaking pitches, and a higher rate of mistake pitches in hittable zones. Those mistakes naturally turned into extra-base hits and crooked-number innings, dragging down his overall 2025 line.
Even so, once he joins Toronto, Cease is very likely to slot in as the club’s No. 2 starter. While his 2025 stat line wasn’t ideal, his underlying stuff and strikeout ability remain elite, and a portion of his inflated ERA is clearly tied to shaky defensive support rather than a complete collapse in his pitching quality. Given that the Blue Jays have fielded one of the best defenses in baseball for two straight seasons, they’re well positioned to help “clean up” some of his numbers.
In that context, a front two of Gausman as the No. 1 and Cease as the No. 2 isn’t just sensible—it gives the Blue Jays a rotation top end that is both imposing and highly intriguing.
Next article preview
We’ll wrap up Part 1 here.
In the next article (Part 2/2 as originally planned), we’ll turn to the other three projected members of the Blue Jays rotation—Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, and Cody Ponce. We’ll examine their pitch mixes, strengths, and overall profiles in greater detail, and continue building toward a comprehensive evaluation of the 2026 Blue Jays starting staff.
Please stay tuned for the follow-up analysis!
Sources /
ESPN MLB
FanGraphs
Sports Vision (運動視界, lejal.chen)
Baseball Savant
MLB.com
Strike 智慧棒球
ChatGPT (for wording and polishing)
A Fan's MLB Insight 
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