On December 6, 2023 (U.S. time), the San Diego Padres and New York Yankees completed a blockbuster trade. The Padres traded All-Star outfielder Juan Soto, who played in every game during the 2023 season, along with outfielder Trent Grisham to the Yankees. In return, the Padres received five players from the Yankees, including four pitchers—Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, and Drew Thorpe—and catcher Kyle Higashioka.
In the 2023 season, the Yankees’ offense suffered a significant downturn. The team posted a batting average of just .227 (29th in MLB), an on-base percentage of .304 (27th), and a slugging percentage of .397 (22nd). These metrics placed them near the bottom of the league and were a far cry from the Yankees’ traditional image as a powerhouse offense. Additionally, the team scored only 673 runs (4.15 runs per game), ranking 25th in MLB and 11th in the American League. Their offense was notably weak.
Despite standout performances from the pitching staff—most notably Gerrit Cole winning the Cy Young Award—the Yankees’ offensive struggles dragged down their overall performance. They finished with an 82–80 record, ranking fourth in the AL East. At one point in the season, they were last in the division and below .500. For Yankees fans accustomed to division dominance, 2023 was a difficult season to endure.
To address these issues, the Yankees made several moves, including acquiring Trent Grisham and Juan Soto in this trade, as well as bolstering their lineup through other transactions. These efforts paid off, as the Yankees rebounded with a 94–68 record in 2024, winning the AL East and advancing to the World Series. Unfortunately, they lost the championship series 4–1 to the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team that also made significant upgrades to its roster.
The Yankees’ offensive improvement in 2024 was evident in their team slash line of .248/.333/.429. While their batting average ranked ninth in MLB, their on-base percentage (third) and slugging percentage (fourth) placed them among the league leaders. The team scored 815 runs, averaging 5.03 runs per game, which ranked third in MLB and first in the AL—a significant improvement in offensive firepower.
Juan Soto was pivotal to the Yankees’ resurgence in 2024. In 157 games, he slashed .288/.419/.569 with a wRC+ of 180 and a career-high WAR of 8.1, second only to Aaron Judge. Soto’s outstanding hitting, coupled with Judge’s consistent excellence, formed a dynamic duo that propelled the Yankees’ offensive revival.
As the 2024 season ended, Juan Soto became a free agent with over six years of MLB service time. His outstanding regular season performance, along with his postseason heroics—most notably a clutch three-run homer in Game 5 of the ALCS that sent the Yankees to the World Series—made him one of the most sought-after players in free agency.
While Yankees management and fans are eager to retain Soto, other teams are also heavily interested in the 26-year-old superstar, known for his consistent and elite offensive capabilities. Teams are preparing to offer substantial, long-term contracts to acquire Soto’s services and strengthen their lineups for years to come.
In this three-part series, I will analyze Juan Soto’s potential destinations for the 2025 season. As one of the most prominent free agents of the 2024–2025 offseason, Soto is at the center of intense competition among teams. Beyond the Yankees, potential suitors include their archrival Boston Red Sox, the Toronto Blue Jays (seeking to return to the postseason), and two National League powerhouses—the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets, both of whom competed in the 2024 NLCS.
This part (1/3) includes the following sections:
1️⃣ Analyzing Juan Soto’s overall offensive and defensive stats for 2024
2️⃣ Examining Soto’s importance to the Yankees and the projected offer they might make to retain him
3️⃣ Discussing the Red Sox’s bold offer of 13 years, $625 million, and their strategic motives
The next part (2/3) will cover:
4️⃣ Why the Dodgers, Mets, and Blue Jays are interested in Soto and how they plan to compete for his signature
5️⃣ What specific contract terms they might offer
1️⃣ Analyzing Juan Soto’s Overall 2024 Stats
Offense:
- Games played: 157
- Plate appearances: 713
- At-bats: 576
- Batting average: .288 (MLB average: .243)
- On-base percentage: .419 (MLB average: .312)
- Slugging percentage: .569 (MLB average: .399)
- ISO (Isolated Power): .281 (MLB average: .156)
- wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average): .421 (MLB average: .310)
- Home runs: 41
- RBIs: 109
- Runs scored: 128
- Stolen bases: 7
- OPS+: 178 (League average: 100)
- wRC+: 181 (League average: 100)
- Strikeout rate: 16.7% (MLB average: 22.6%)
- Walk rate: 18.1% (MLB average: 8.2%)
- BsR (Baserunning Runs): -3.8 (MLB average: 1.8)
- Hard-hit rate: 56.8%
- Pull rate: 45.1%
- Center field rate: 34.7%
- Opposite field rate: 20.2%
Juan Soto’s offensive performance in 2024 was nothing short of spectacular. With an on-base percentage above .400 and a slugging percentage exceeding .550, he demonstrated a rare combination of consistency and power. His OPS+ and wRC+ metrics significantly outpaced the league average, cementing his status as one of the premier hitters in the game.
Soto’s plate discipline was equally impressive, with a walk rate that more than doubled the league average and a strikeout rate far below average. This made him a nightmare for opposing pitchers, as he could reach base consistently while delivering damaging extra-base hits.
However, Soto’s baserunning was less effective, with a BsR of -3.8, marking the weakest point in his offensive profile. While he successfully stole seven bases, his overall baserunning contributions lagged behind league norms.
Defense:
- Innings played in the outfield: 1329 2/3
- Fielding percentage: .994
- Errors: 2
- RngR (Range Runs): -9.2
- ErrR (Error Runs): 1.1
- UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games): -5.4
- OAA (Outs Above Average): -4
- ARM (Arm Strength Runs): 3.1
Defensively, Soto was reliable but limited in range. His fielding percentage was high, and he committed only two errors over the season. However, his range metrics (RngR and UZR/150) indicated below-average coverage in the outfield. On the positive side, Soto’s throwing arm showed marked improvement, with his ARM metric reaching a career-high of 3.1, making him a solid presence in corner outfield positions.
Durability:
Soto played over 150 games in each of the last four seasons (2021–2024), demonstrating exceptional durability and reliability. His ability to stay healthy and perform consistently makes him even more valuable in free agency.
2️⃣ Juan Soto’s Importance to the Yankees and Their Projected Offer to Retain Him
Acquiring Juan Soto during the 2023–2024 offseason was a pivotal move for the Yankees. The team’s lackluster offensive performance in 2023 significantly hindered their success. Soto, alongside Aaron Judge, formed a potent 2-3 lineup combination in 2024, reviving the Yankees’ offense. This dynamic duo played a critical role in the Yankees’ resurgence, helping them reclaim the AL East title and reach the World Series.
With Judge turning 33 next season and potentially nearing the decline phase of his career, Soto’s youth (26 years old) and longer peak window make him indispensable for the Yankees’ future. Soto’s consistent performance positions him as the linchpin of the Yankees’ offense for years to come.
Defensively, Soto played 1,329 2/3 innings in the outfield in 2024, the most among Yankees outfielders. While his advanced defensive metrics reveal limitations in range, his stability and improved arm strength make him a vital presence in right field. Should Soto leave, the Yankees would face challenges in reshuffling their outfield. Aaron Judge, primarily a center fielder in 2024, might return to right field, while players like Trent Grisham, Jazz Chisholm (acquired midseason), or top prospect Jasson Dominguez would have to fill the gaps, potentially destabilizing the outfield.
The Yankees reportedly plan to offer Soto a 14-year contract worth $600 million, with an average annual value of approximately $42.86 million. This deal would keep Soto in pinstripes through the 2038 MLB season, when he would turn 40. Additionally, there are rumors that the Yankees may stretch their offer to a 15-year contract to secure Soto’s commitment.
Looking back, Soto famously declined a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Washington Nationals in 2022, likely due to the team’s lack of competitiveness. Since then, his consistent performance has strengthened his bargaining power, and he now commands even higher contract terms.
The Yankees signed Soto to a 1-year, $31 million contract for the 2024 season. Retaining him for 2025 and beyond would require significantly improving this offer. A 14-year, $600 million deal seems both competitive and reflective of Soto’s value as a franchise cornerstone.
3️⃣ The Red Sox’s $625 Million Offer: Strategic Goals and Implications
The Yankees’ longtime rival, the Boston Red Sox, have emerged as a serious contender for Soto’s services. Reports suggest the Red Sox recently offered Soto a 13-year contract worth $625 million, with an average annual value of $48.07 million. This would set a new standard for free-agent contracts, barring Shohei Ohtani’s deferred 10-year, $700 million deal with the Dodgers.
Why are the Red Sox so determined to sign Soto? Their motivations are multifaceted:
- Enhancing Offensive Firepower:
While the Red Sox posted respectable offensive stats in 2024 (team slash line: .252/.319/.423, ranking sixth, ninth, and sixth in MLB for average, OBP, and SLG respectively), they lacked a truly elite, game-changing hitter like Soto. Despite career-best performances from players like Jarren Duran (wRC+ 129) and Tyler O’Neill (wRC+ 124), the Red Sox’s offense fell short of the league’s top-tier teams. - Strengthening the Outfield:
The Red Sox’s outfield featured several utility players and lacked defensive stability. Masataka Yoshida, primarily a designated hitter due to defensive struggles, highlighted this weakness. Signing Soto would not only boost offensive production but also provide much-needed stability to the outfield rotation. - Capitalizing on Fenway Park’s Layout:
Fenway Park’s short right-field fence and hitter-friendly dimensions are tailor-made for a left-handed power hitter like Soto. His ability to consistently drive the ball to the pull side would amplify his offensive contributions at Fenway. - Undermining the Yankees:
The Red Sox have a long-standing rivalry with the Yankees, and signing Soto would not only strengthen their lineup but also weaken their archrivals. Soto’s departure would leave a significant gap in the Yankees’ offense, disrupting the balance of power in the AL East.
The Red Sox finished 2024 with an 81–81 record, third in the AL East, after a midseason slump derailed their promising start. Having missed the playoffs for multiple seasons, the Red Sox view Soto as the catalyst for a return to contention.
Conclusion of Part 1
The battle for Juan Soto in free agency is shaping up to be one of the most intense in recent MLB history. The Yankees recognize Soto’s importance to their present and future success, while the Red Sox see an opportunity to elevate their team and disrupt their rivals.
In Part 2, we will delve into the Dodgers, Mets, and Blue Jays—three teams with compelling reasons to pursue Soto. These franchises are expected to aggressively bid for the star outfielder, each offering unique advantages and challenges.
Stay tuned for the next installment of this analysis!
Sources:
- Wikipedia
- Fangraphs
- MLB.com
- Baseball Reference
- Taiwan Baseball Wiki
- The Mirror US
- NowNews
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