The 2024 MLB postseason has officially begun. Since the 2022 season, the Wild Card Series has been changed to a best-of-three format. The division champion with the worst record in each league (No. 3 seed) faces the third-ranked Wild Card team (No. 6 seed), with all games played at the home of the division champion with the worst record. Meanwhile, the second-ranked Wild Card team (No. 5 seed) faces the first-ranked Wild Card team (No. 4 seed), with all games at the home of the No. 4 seed.

This year’s Wild Card matchups are as follows:

American League Wild Card Game (ALWC) ⬇️

⚾️ 6 VS. 3 ⚾️
Detroit Tigers (No. 6 seed)
VS.
Houston Astros (No. 3 seed)

Winner will face the Cleveland Guardians (No. 2 seed) in the American League Division Series (ALDS).

⚾️ 5 VS. 4 ⚾️
Kansas City Royals (No. 5 seed)
VS.
Baltimore Orioles (No. 4 seed)

Winner will face the New York Yankees (No. 1 seed) in the ALDS.

National League Wild Card Game (NLWC) ⬇️

⚾️ 6 VS. 3 ⚾️
New York Mets (No. 6 seed)
VS.
Milwaukee Brewers (No. 3 seed)

Winner will face the Philadelphia Phillies (No. 2 seed) in the National League Division Series (NLDS).

⚾️ 5 VS. 4 ⚾️
Atlanta Braves (No. 5 seed)
VS.
San Diego Padres (No. 4 seed)

Winner will face the Los Angeles Dodgers (No. 1 seed) in the NLDS.

This two-part series will analyze the first game of the National League Wild Card Series between the Atlanta Braves and the San Diego Padres. The starting pitchers for this matchup are A.J. Smith-Shawver for the Braves and Michael King for the Padres.

Part 1/2

• Game Preview
• Game Highlights
• Performance of Padres Starter Michael King
• Performance of Braves Starter A.J. Smith-Shawver
• Bullpen Performance Analysis

Part 2/2

• Batting Performance Analysis
• Defensive Analysis
• Tactical Details
• What adjustments will each team make for the next game?
• Summary

⚾️ Game Preview ⚾️

This season, the Atlanta Braves finished with a record of 89-73. On the day before the postseason began, they played a doubleheader against the division rival New York Mets at Truist Park, the Braves’ home field.

In the first game, Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach pitched a solid seven innings without allowing a run. However, in the eighth inning, after giving up a double to the first Mets batter, Tyrone Taylor, Schwellenbach was pulled. The Braves’ bullpen was unable to contain the Mets, allowing six runs in the inning. Although the Braves fought back in the bottom of the eighth, scoring four runs to temporarily take the lead, closer Pierce Johnson gave up a two-run home run to Francisco Lindor in the ninth, resulting in a 7-8 loss. This game helped the Mets clinch their spot in the postseason.

In the second game, the Braves’ ace Chris Sale (18-3, ERA 2.38) was initially scheduled to start but was unable to due to back spasms. Grant Holmes stepped in and delivered an impressive performance, pitching four scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. The Braves then used a bullpen relay to effectively control the game, securing a 3-0 win, which allowed them to reach the postseason for the seventh consecutive season (2018-2024).

The Braves finished the regular season with an 89-73 record, tying with the New York Mets for second place in the National League East, and were also tied for second in the NL Wild Card standings with the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, since the Diamondbacks had a worse head-to-head record against both the Braves and the Mets, they were eliminated. The Braves, who won seven of their 13 matchups against the Mets this season, were able to claim the second Wild Card spot (No. 5 seed) and advance to face the San Diego Padres.

The San Diego Padres finished the regular season with a record of 93-69, placing second in the NL West. They showed great form after the All-Star break, even threatening the Los Angeles Dodgers for the division title. Although they ultimately did not claim the division crown, their strong overall performance allowed them to secure the first Wild Card spot and earn home-field advantage for the Wild Card Series, giving them a promising outlook for the postseason.

Padres – Offensive, Pitching, and Defensive Analysis

This season, the Padres’ team offense was excellent, posting a batting average of .263 (1st in the league), an on-base percentage of .324 (6th), and a slugging percentage of .420 (7th). Their offense was quite effective, averaging 4.69 runs per game, ranking 8th in the league.

In September, the Padres’ offense continued to perform well, with many of their metrics ranking in the top 10 of the league. However, their performance with runners in scoring position was somewhat lacking, with a batting average of only .225 in such situations, ranking 22nd in the league, which affected their overall scoring efficiency.

Pitching-wise, the Padres had a decent overall performance, with a team ERA of 3.86, ranking 12th in the league. The starting pitchers had an ERA of 3.93 (13th), while the bullpen posted an ERA of 3.78 (11th), performing slightly better. In September, the Padres’ pitching significantly improved, with a team ERA of 2.83, ranking 5th in the league. The starting pitchers had an ERA of 2.69 (5th), while the bullpen had an ERA of 3.06 (6th), maintaining a strong level of performance.

Defensively, the Padres committed 75 errors throughout the season, tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for the 5th fewest in the league, indicating effective error control. However, in many advanced defensive metrics, the Padres ranked below league average, suggesting that while they minimized errors, their overall defensive value was limited.

Braves – Offensive, Pitching, and Defensive Analysis

This season, the Braves’ team offense declined compared to last year. They posted a batting average of .243 (15th), an on-base percentage of .309 (16th), and a slugging percentage of .415 (9th). Compared to last year, where the Braves led the league in all three categories, their offensive performance suffered, partly due to injuries to key hitters, resulting in only 704 total runs this season (4.35 runs per game), a significant drop from last year’s 947 runs (5.85 per game).

However, in September, the Braves’ offensive performance rebounded, with their team metrics ranking in the top 10 of the league. Over the last two weeks, their weighted runs created plus (wRC+) was 129, ranking 2nd in the league, indicating successful offensive adjustments.

Pitching-wise, the Braves were excellent, with a team ERA of 3.49, the best in the league. The starting pitchers had an ERA of 3.58 (3rd), and the bullpen had an ERA of 3.32 (3rd), demonstrating stability. In September, the Braves’ team ERA was 2.72 (2nd), behind only the Cleveland Guardians, showing strong pitching that contributed to their 15-11 record for the month (.577 winning percentage), despite facing a hot Mets team.

The Braves committed only 68 errors this season, the 2nd fewest in the league, behind the Arizona Diamondbacks (62). Despite excelling at controlling errors, the Braves ranked only in the middle of the league in many advanced defensive metrics, suggesting their defensive contributions were not outstanding compared to their opponents.

Michael King – Padres Pitcher Pre-Game Analysis

This season, Michael King made 31 appearances, 30 of which were starts, compiling a record of 13-9 with a 2.95 ERA. He pitched 173.2 innings, striking out 201 batters (27.7% strikeout rate) and walking 63 (8.7% walk rate), with a FIP of 3.33, indicating an overall strong performance.

Michael King, a right-hander, has been equally effective against both left-handed and right-handed hitters. Against right-handed batters, his opponent batting average is .218, with an OPS of .626; against left-handed hitters, it’s .223 with an OPS of .655, both of which are impressive.

This is King’s first season as a full-time starter, after spending five years (2019-2023) primarily as a reliever for the Yankees. He was traded to the Padres during the 2023-2024 offseason as part of a deal that sent several top starting pitchers out of San Diego. King’s five-pitch mix includes a sinker (27.9%), changeup (24.6%), four-seam fastball (24.1%), cutter (17.8%), and slider (5.6%). Among these, his cutter and changeup have been the most effective, with opponent batting averages of .206 and .207 respectively, both achieving swing-and-miss rates over 30%.

This year, King has not faced the Braves, but he did pitch against them last year, on August 17th, going 3.2 innings, allowing just one

hit and no runs, while striking out three and walking one.

A.J. Smith-Shawver – Braves Pitcher Pre-Game Analysis

Originally, the Braves planned for Chris Sale to be their starter in this key game, but due to Sale’s back spasms, A.J. Smith-Shawver was announced as the starter just 3-4 hours before the game. This season, Smith-Shawver made just one MLB appearance, going 4.1 innings, allowing three hits, striking out four, and walking two without giving up a run.

In Triple-A Gwinnett, he started 20 games, giving up 69 hits and 47 earned runs for a 4.86 ERA, with 104 strikeouts and 40 walks (K/BB ratio of 2.6). In his MLB career, Smith-Shawver has made seven appearances, six of which were starts, totaling 29.2 innings, giving up 20 hits and 14 runs (12 earned), with an ERA of 3.64, but a concerning FIP of 6.69 due to allowing seven home runs.

Smith-Shawver’s three main pitches are the four-seam fastball (54%), changeup (25.3%), and curveball (20.7%). His fastball has an average velocity of 96.2 mph, and his changeup is especially effective, allowing just a .067 batting average over two seasons.

Game Highlights (Key Events)

Here are the highlights of the game: Video source: MLB YouTube Channel

• Top 1st: Braves get a runner in scoring position but fail to score.
• Bottom 1st: Padres take an early 2-0 lead with Tatis Jr.’s 415-foot homer.
• Top 4th: Braves’ d’Arnaud hits a double, but the inning ends without a run.
• Bottom 8th: Padres’ Kyle Higashioka extends the lead with a solo home run.
• Final Score: Padres 4, Braves 0.

Michael King – Performance Analysis

• Innings: 7
• Hits Allowed: 5
• Runs: 0
• Strikeouts: 12
• Walks: 0
• Pitches: 89
• Strike Ratio: 73.03%

King dominated with an effective pitch mix, consistently finding the strike zone. His cutter was particularly effective, generating a high swing-and-miss rate (66.67%). He faced threats in the first three innings but worked effectively with his catcher, Kyle Higashioka, to get out of trouble.

A.J. Smith-Shawver – Performance Analysis

• Innings: 1.1
• Hits Allowed: 4
• Runs: 3
• Strikeouts: 1
• Walks: 0
• Pitches: 29
• Strike Ratio: 65.52%

Smith-Shawver struggled with control, especially his fastball, which was often hit hard. He lasted only into the second inning before being replaced, failing to find consistency against the Padres’ lineup.

This concludes Part 1 of the analysis. Part 2 will cover batting and defensive performance, tactical analysis, and potential adjustments for Game 2.

Sources:

• MLB Official Website
• Yahoo! Sports
• Fangraphs
• Statmuse
• Liberty Times Sports News
• Baseball Savant
• ESPN
• Marquee Sports Network
• Vocus Sports Knowledge