In the previous article, we explored Aaron Judge’s baseball career and analyzed his hitting style through basic batting statistics, while also breaking down his swing mechanics. This article will delve deeper into Judge’s performance against various types of pitches, examine his plate discipline and hitting tendencies, and analyze his situational statistics in different contexts.

As of the end of the game on August 19, 2024 (Taiwan time)

4️⃣ Analysis of Aaron Judge’s Performance Against Various Pitches

Overall Performance Against Different Pitches This Season

Below are Aaron Judge’s batting performance stats against three different types of pitches for the current season (2024).

Data Source: Baseball Savant

wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average, a metric that assigns different weights based on the type of on-base events)
Whiff% (Swing-and-Miss Rate)

Below are Aaron Judge’s batting performance stats against all pitch types for the current season (2024).

Data Source: Baseball Savant

Overall, Aaron Judge faces a wide variety of pitch types from different pitchers. Although he sees four-seam fastballs 27.4% of the time (the most frequent pitch type, though not a particularly high percentage), this is likely related to his reputation as a very powerful hitter, causing pitchers to be cautious about using fastballs too often against him.

This season, Judge has performed exceptionally well against fastball pitches, boasting a batting average of .395. Notably, his batting average against sinkers (a pitch that many pitchers now use as a fastball variant) is even higher at .429, surpassing his performance against four-seam fastballs.

As for breaking balls, Judge has a whiff rate exceeding 40.0% against both sliders and curveballs (two common breaking ball pitches) this season. Despite the higher whiff rate, when he does make contact with these pitches, he often produces solid extra-base hits.

However, Aaron Judge has struggled more against changeups this season, with a batting average of only .175 and a whiff rate of 48.5%, making it the most challenging pitch type for him among the main pitch categories.

VS. Fastball Pitch Type Performance

Below are Aaron Judge’s nine-season career batting performance stats against fastball-type pitches.

Data Source: Baseball Savant

This year, Aaron Judge’s ability to handle fastball-type pitches has been outstanding, with an overall batting average of .395, the highest in his nine-season career. This season, Judge has set career highs in batting average against four-seam fastballs, sinkers, and cutters, showing a significant improvement in his overall command compared to previous seasons.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone recently mentioned in an interview that Judge has been more focused in his hitting strategy this season and has made some adjustments to his swing mechanics. These changes are likely key factors in Judge’s improved performance against fastballs.

VS.Breaking Ball Pitch Type Performance

Below are Aaron Judge’s nine-season career batting performance stats against breaking ball-type pitches.

Data Source: Baseball Savant

In recent years, Aaron Judge has performed quite well against breaking pitches, especially in the past four seasons (2021-2024), where in three of those seasons, his overall batting average exceeded .250, and he showed excellent power as well. Although last year (2023) Judge’s overall performance against breaking pitches was not ideal, he quickly adjusted this year, improving both his batting average and slugging percentage while also reducing his whiff rate. This successful adjustment has made his batting performance this season more impressive compared to last season.

Compared to last season, Aaron Judge’s batting performance against curveballs has significantly improved this year, with his batting average rising from .160 to .231, and his slugging percentage increasing from .320 to .538. However, when facing sliders, the batting average remained relatively stable (from .234 in 2023 to .243 in 2024), but the slugging percentage dropped from .578 to .432.

It’s worth noting that this season, Aaron Judge has excelled against sweepers, achieving a .324 batting average and hitting 6 home runs in 44 plate appearances. Notably, two years ago, in the 2022 season, when Judge was also having an outstanding season, he had a .583 batting average against sweepers, hitting 5 home runs.

VS. Changeup Pitch Type Performance

Below are Aaron Judge’s batting statistics against changeup-type pitches over his nine-season career.
Source: Baseball Savant."

Changeups have always been one of the more challenging pitch types for Aaron Judge throughout his career. From 2018 to 2023, Judge’s batting average against changeups was consistently below .200, and in several seasons, his whiff rate exceeded 50.0%. However, this season, Judge has shown improvement against changeups. While his batting average of .231 is still the lowest among the three main pitch types, it represents a significant improvement compared to previous seasons, indicating that Aaron Judge’s hitting ability is becoming more well-rounded.

In fact, Aaron Judge’s performance against changeups throughout his career has generally been subpar, with a batting average of only .175 against this pitch type this season. However, this year, Judge has excelled against split-finger fastballs, achieving a .417 batting average, with 4 out of 5 hits being extra-base hits, including 2 home runs. This marks a significant improvement compared to last season (2023), when he hit just .188 against changeups.

Summary of Various Pitch Types

Overall, this year, Aaron Judge has made significant progress against all three major pitch types. In addition to improving his command of fastballs, he has also shown notable improvement against both changeups and breaking balls, which has been one of the keys to his outstanding offensive performance this season.

However, Judge’s performance against changeups remains a weakness. If he can address this issue, it would significantly enhance his overall performance in MLB, making him an even more formidable hitter.

5️⃣ Aaron Judge’s Plate Discipline and Swing Analysis

Plate Discipline

Below are the statistics from Aaron Judge’s nine-season career, detailing his swings at pitches inside and outside the strike zone, as well as whether or not he made contact.

Source: Fangraphs

(Outside the strike zone)

(Inside the strike zone)

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Overall, Aaron Judge’s plate discipline is excellent. While his whiff rate on pitches outside the strike zone is relatively high (career 62.4%, compared to the recent MLB average of about 40.0%-45.0%), this is largely due to his swing mechanics. Judge doesn’t often chase pitches outside the strike zone (career chase rate 21.0%, while the MLB average in recent years is about 25.0%-30.0%).

Additionally, Aaron Judge’s whiff rate on pitches within the strike zone is also slightly higher than the league average (career 19.9%, while the recent MLB average is 13.0%-17.0%), which is again related to his large swing arc.

Although Aaron Judge’s swing mechanics allow him to hit a large number of home runs, they also make him prone to whiffing, leading to a higher overall strikeout rate (career K% of 28.1%). However, in recent years, his walk rate has improved compared to the early years of his career, reaching 18.5% this year. His BB/K ratio this season is 0.76, the best of his career.

Batting Type Analysis

(Batting Type)

Below is the breakdown of Aaron Judge’s overall batting type ratio across his nine seasons:

Data Source / Fangraphs

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In recent years, Aaron Judge has been a very typical ‘fly ball hitter.’ Over the past two years (2023-2024), Judge’s ground ball rate has remained around 30%-31%, while his fly ball rate has been as high as 45%-50%. Additionally, Judge’s line drive rate this season is 23.6%, which is an increase of 4.0% compared to last season’s 19.6%.

(Batted Ball Direction)

Below is the breakdown of Aaron Judge’s batted ball direction over nine seasons in his career.
Source: Fangraphs

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Aaron Judge is a well-rounded hitter when it comes to hitting direction. Particularly over the past four years (2021-2024), he has directed over 30.0% of his hits toward the center of the field, with this season seeing that number reach as high as 36.1%. Although his overall performance across the nine seasons (2016-2024) shows that he primarily pulls the ball (with several seasons where his pull percentage exceeded 45.0%), his ability to hit in the opposite direction is also quite significant, with an average of 24.8% across his nine seasons.

(Hard-Hit Percentage)

Below is the hard-hit percentage for Aaron Judge over his nine-season career:
Source: Baseball Reference

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Translation:

Hard-Hit Balls: Balls with an exit velocity over 95 mph.

Aaron Judge is a hitter who consistently makes strong contact with the ball. Especially in the past three years (2022-2024), his hard-hit ball percentage has exceeded 60.0%, and his average exit velocity has been over 95.0 mph. During these three years, Judge has consistently hit the ball solidly, resulting in an OPS+ over 170 each year (210 in 2022, 174 in 2023, and 221 in 2024).

This trend is mainly due to Aaron Judge’s recent success in solidifying his plate discipline. Additionally, his proficiency in handling fastball-type pitches is exceptional, and his overall performance against the other two pitch types has improved. As a result, Judge has reached a new level in terms of the quality of his contact, which has significantly boosted his offensive numbers.

Summary of Plate Discipline & Hitting Approach

Overall, the primary reason Aaron Judge has performed so well in recent years is his ability to hit to all fields, with a particularly high percentage of balls hit up the middle. He has also solidified his command of the strike zone and maintained excellent plate discipline. Although Judge’s swing style makes him prone to strikeouts, his ability to judge pitches as they enter the strike zone is impressive, allowing him to leverage his hitting strengths to create immense value for himself.

Aaron Judge’s Hitting Analysis in Various Situations

The following analysis focuses on his performance in the 2024 season.

Different Baserunning Situations

Data source: Baseball Reference.

This season, Aaron Judge has performed exceptionally well, regardless of whether there are no runners on base, a runner on first, runners in scoring position, or even with the bases loaded. His overall performance has been very consistent.

It is worth noting that the lowest OPS+ Judge has this season across various base-running situations (8 different combinations) is when there are runners on second and third (with an OPS+ of 148). This is also the only scenario where Judge’s batting average is below .300 (with a batting average of .286).

This demonstrates that Judge’s performance is not significantly affected by different base-running situations, resulting in very stable offensive numbers across all scenarios this season.

Performance Against Left-Handed and Right-Handed Pitchers

The following data is sourced from Baseball Reference.

This season, Aaron Judge has shown exceptional performance against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, with an OPS+ exceeding 200 in both cases (219 against right-handers and 234 against left-handers). Notably, Judge’s batting average against right-handed pitchers is .339, which is .036 higher than his .303 average against left-handers.

However, his on-base percentage against left-handers is an impressive .507 (indicating that he gets on base more than half the time), which is .06 higher than the .447 he has against right-handers. This discrepancy is primarily due to the cautious approach left-handed pitchers take when facing Aaron Judge, resulting in a walk rate of 27.86% against left-handers, compared to 15.37% against right-handers.

Statistics for Counts Ahead / Behind / Even

The following data is sourced from Baseball Reference.
(Note: The comparison OPS for these situations starts from the year 1988.)

Overall, Aaron Judge is a hitter who does not shy away from being behind in the count. Although his performance in terms of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage declines when he is behind in the count compared to when he is ahead, his OPS+ when behind in the count is actually higher than when he is ahead, relative to league standards (with data starting from 1988).

Notably, this season, Aaron Judge had 256 plate appearances where he ended the at-bat while being ahead in the count, which is more than 120 plate appearances greater than the 135 times he ended the at-bat while behind in the count. This indicates that pitchers tend to pitch cautiously and avoid confrontation with Judge. This phenomenon is not only related to Judge’s strong hitting ability but also to the relatively weaker protection provided by the subsequent batters (usually the cleanup hitter).

Performance Against Power Pitchers, Control Pitchers, and Those In-Between

The following data is sourced from Baseball Reference.

Definition (Baseball Reference Standard):

• Power Pitchers: Strikeout rate + walk rate ranks in the top 1/3 of the entire league.
• In-Between: Strikeout rate + walk rate ranks in the middle 1/3 of the entire league.
• Finesse Pitchers: Strikeout rate + walk rate ranks in the bottom 1/3 of the entire league.

From the above data, it can be seen that Aaron Judge’s overall OPS+ against power pitchers (usually those who rely on strong fastballs) is as high as 249, while his OPS+ against finesse pitchers (those who emphasize pitch location and finesse over speed) is 173. This phenomenon is likely related to Judge’s identity as a “super power hitter." His hitting statistics against fastball-type pitches are excellent, which explains why his performance against power pitchers is significantly better than against finesse pitchers.

“This Season’s Home and Away Batting Performance"

Data Source: Baseball Reference

This season, Aaron Judge has demonstrated outstanding batting performance both at home and on the road. Not only did his batting average exceed .320 in both settings, but his tremendous hitting power also led to a slugging percentage of over .700 in both home and away games.

It is noteworthy that this season, Aaron Judge’s BB/K ratio is 0.92 at home, compared to 0.63 on the road, indicating that his performance is even more impressive at home. This phenomenon could be related to the shorter home run wall distance at Yankee Stadium compared to other ballparks. Additionally, as the Yankees’ marquee player, Judge often exhibits higher spirits at home, which makes opposing pitchers more cautious when facing him at Yankee Stadium.

Summary of Shared Data

Overall, Aaron Judge consistently showcases his extraordinary skills in almost all situations. Despite being a typical “power hitter," he still manages to achieve excellent results even in potentially “disadvantageous" situations. His various metrics generally have an OPS+ above 170, highlighting Judge as a highly reliable batter. Not only does he possess immense power, but he also displays excellent plate discipline, further enhancing his offensive threat.

This concludes the second part of the series. In the next and final installment of the Aaron Judge analysis series, we will analyze his defensive performance, address the current challenges Judge needs to overcome, and identify the advantages he can effectively utilize. The series will conclude with a summary.

Data Sources

• Baseball Savant
• NY Times
• Fangraphs
• Baseball Reference
• Wikipedia