In recent years, Major League Baseball (MLB) has seen a surge in power hitters, with more sluggers than ever before. This three-part series will introduce the most formidable slugger of the New York Yankees—Aaron Judge.

Aaron Judge recently (on August 14th, U.S. time) hit his 300th career home run at the Chicago White Sox’s home field (Guarantee Rate Field). Currently, in his nine-year professional career, he has accumulated 301 home runs, making him one of the most powerful hitters in today’s MLB.

As of now, Aaron Judge has already hit 44 home runs this season, leading the entire league. He is five home runs ahead of Shohei Ohtani, the Japanese slugger from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Before this season, Judge had already led the American League in home runs twice, and in 2022, he broke the legendary New York Yankees player Roger Maris’ record (61 homers) with 62 home runs in a single season.

This series will analyze Aaron Judge’s hitting mechanics and will be divided into three articles.

The breakdown is as follows:

(Part 1/3)
1️⃣ Aaron Judge’s Biography
2️⃣ Analyzing Aaron Judge’s hitting style using basic batting statistics
3️⃣ Breaking down Aaron Judge’s swing mechanics

(Part 2/3)
4️⃣ Analyzing Aaron Judge’s performance against different types of pitches
5️⃣ Analyzing Aaron Judge’s plate discipline and hitting tendencies
6️⃣ Analyzing Aaron Judge’s performance in various situational contexts

(Part 3/3)
7️⃣ Detailed analysis of Aaron Judge’s defensive performance
8️⃣ Exploring areas where Aaron Judge can further improve and leverage his strengths
9️⃣ Conclusion

As of the end of the game on August 19th, 2024 (Taiwan time)

1️⃣ Aaron Judge’s Biography

Aaron Judge was born in Sacramento, California. He was raised by his adoptive parents (mother Patty Judge and father Wayne Judge), both of whom are teachers. As a child, Aaron Judge was a fan of the San Francisco Giants. Notably, during his childhood, the Giants had a formidable slugger—Barry Bonds.

Barry Bonds set the record for the most home runs in a single season with 73 and holds the all-time MLB record with 762 career home runs.

In high school (Linden High School), Aaron Judge excelled in multiple sports. Besides baseball, where he played as a first baseman and pitcher, he was also a wide receiver on the football team and a center on the basketball team. Remarkably, Aaron Judge set a school record with 17 touchdowns in football, and his average of 18.2 points per game in basketball was the highest on the team. Interestingly, his development in baseball was relatively less prominent.

After graduating from high school, many universities wanted him to join as a tight end in football, a position focused on offense. However, Aaron Judge ultimately chose baseball. In the 2010 MLB Draft, the Oakland Athletics selected Aaron Judge with the 31st overall pick, but he chose to continue his education at California State University, Fresno.

During college, as a member of the Fresno State Bulldogs, Aaron Judge led his team in doubles, home runs, and RBIs during his freshman season.

In 2013, the New York Yankees selected Aaron Judge with the 32nd overall pick, likely to fill the void left by veteran Nick Swisher after he became a free agent. Unfortunately, Judge suffered a quadriceps tear in 2013, causing him to miss the entire season. Without this injury, he might have made it to the major leagues sooner than expected.

In 2014, Judge excelled in the minor leagues (mainly at the advanced Single-A level), leading to an invitation to the Yankees’ spring training in 2015. At that time, he wasn’t on the Yankees’ 40-man roster, but he participated in spring training by invitation. That year, Aaron Judge advanced to Triple-A and represented the Yankees in the 2015 MLB Futures Game.

Here’s a video of Aaron Judge’s swing during spring training in 2016.

Video Source: Yes Network YT

On August 13, 2016 (U.S. time), Aaron Judge made his Major League debut. In that game, the Yankees were facing the Tampa Bay Rays, and in Judge’s first career at-bat, he hit a home run off Rays’ starting pitcher Matt Andriese. It’s worth noting that in the at-bat just before Judge, Yankees’ Tyler Austin also hit a home run in his Major League debut (home run in his first career at-bat), making this game even more historic.

Video Source: MLB Official YT

On August 13, 2016 (U.S. time), Aaron Judge made his Major League debut. The Yankees were facing the Tampa Bay Rays, and in Judge’s first career at-bat, he hit a home run off Rays’ starting pitcher Matt Andriese. Notably, in the at-bat just before Judge, Yankees’ Tyler Austin also hit a home run in his Major League debut (home run in his first career at-bat), making this game even more historic.

In his second Major League game, Aaron Judge also hit a home run, becoming the second Yankees rookie to homer in his first two games since Joe Lefebvre in 1980. However, Judge’s overall performance in the Majors during the 2016 season was not ideal. His batting line was just .179 / .263 / .345, and in 95 plate appearances, he struck out 42 times (K% 44.21%). Unfortunately, on September 13, 2016, during a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Judge suffered an oblique injury and was placed on the 15-day injured list, ending his 2016 season prematurely.

In the 2017 season, Aaron Judge hit 52 home runs and won the American League Rookie of the Year award (under the rule that a player who made their Major League debut in the previous year with fewer than 130 at-bats is eligible for the award in the following year). He also broke Yankees legend Joe DiMaggio’s team rookie home run record (DiMaggio hit 29 home runs in 1936). Despite Judge’s record-breaking performance in many areas, his postseason performance was less than stellar, striking out 27 times, which set a record at the time.

In the 2018-2019 seasons, Aaron Judge was limited by injuries, playing in 112 games in 2018 and 102 games in 2019. Nonetheless, he still hit 27 home runs in each of those seasons, demonstrating his consistent power-hitting ability.

The 2020 season was shortened to 60 games due to the global pandemic COVID-19. Aaron Judge was again hampered by injuries (right calf strain) and played in only 28 games but still displayed solid power.

Overall, from 2018-2020, Aaron Judge showcased his impressive power-hitting, with a slugging percentage (SLG) of over .520 in each of those three seasons. Unfortunately, injuries limited his playing time during those years.

The 2021 season was a pivotal year for Aaron Judge’s overall performance. He played in 148 games and posted a batting line of .287 / .373 / .544. Although his overall stats did not improve significantly compared to 2018-2020, his ability to stay healthy in 2021 led to him being selected for the All-Star Game and finishing fourth in the American League MVP voting.

In the 2022 season, Aaron Judge truly showcased his extraordinary hitting prowess. He posted a batting line of .311 / .425 / .686 (OPS+ 210), hit a record-breaking 62 home runs for the American League, and drove in 131 RBIs (tied with the New York Mets’ Pete Alonso for the most). Judge also won the American League MVP award for that season.

It is worth noting that before the 2022 season, Aaron Judge and the Yankees had disagreements over contract negotiations. Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman revealed to ESPN that the Yankees had offered Judge $17 million in arbitration and a seven-year extension worth $213.5 million (an average of $30.5 million per year). Ultimately, Aaron Judge avoided salary arbitration by signing a one-year, $19 million contract with the Yankees. Additionally, if Judge won the American League MVP or the World Series MVP that year, he would receive a $250,000 bonus for each award. In the end, Judge won the American League MVP and received the $250,000 bonus. However, because the Yankees were eliminated by the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series (2022 ALCS), Judge missed out on the “World Series MVP" bonus.

After the 2022 season, Aaron Judge became a free agent. The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants showed significant interest in signing Judge, causing concern among Yankees fans that he might leave. However, Aaron Judge ultimately chose to re-sign with the Yankees on a nine-year, $360 million contract (an average of $40 million per year), breaking the record for the highest total value of a free-agent contract in MLB history, much to the relief of many Yankees fans.

In the 2023 season, Aaron Judge had an outstanding offensive performance, with a batting line of .267 / .406 / .613, and an OPS+ of 174. He was also selected for the MLB All-Star Game that year. However, during the season, Judge suffered a toe injury while catching a fly ball at Dodger Stadium, as the outfield fence collapsed after impact (the fence was suspected not to have been properly secured). The injury caused him to be placed on the injured list, and he missed 42 games. This injury significantly affected the Yankees’ competitiveness, leading to the team’s poor performance in the postseason race. The Yankees finished the 2023 season with an 82-80 record and missed the playoffs.

In the 2024 season, Aaron Judge started slow due to an injury sustained during spring training, resulting in a subpar batting performance during the first month (March-April). His batting average was just .180 in the first three weeks. However, in May, Judge rebounded with a stellar month, posting a batting line of .361 / .479 / .918, with an OPS of 1.397, hitting 14 home runs in the month. Additionally, Judge’s OPS exceeded 1.100 in every month from May to August, and outside of the season’s early struggles, he has faced virtually no slumps. This has put him in serious contention for the American League MVP this year.

Currently, Aaron Judge’s season stats are: batting line of .331 / .463 / .703, and an OPS+ of 221. Many of his stats are even better than his 2022 performance. Additionally, the Yankees have played 125 regular-season games, and Judge has only missed two games, making his consistent presence crucial to the Yankees’ impressive 73-52 record.

Moreover, Aaron Judge currently holds a WAR of 8.4, the highest on the team, leading the second-place Juan Soto (who joined the Yankees this year) by 1.1 WAR (according to Baseball Reference data).

2️⃣ Analyzing Aaron Judge as a hitter using basic stats

《Batting Line + Isolated Power》

The following data compiles his nine-season career stats from 2016-2024.

Data Source / Baseball Reference

Overall, Aaron Judge is a hitter with tremendous power. Looking at his eight relatively complete seasons from 2017 to 2024, his slugging percentage has exceeded .200 every year, and in four of those seasons, his isolated power (ISO) reached over .300. Aaron Judge’s career ISO is .313, while the MLB average ISO during his playing years is .165.

Additionally, Aaron Judge’s batting average has been consistently strong. In the eight complete seasons from 2017 to 2024, his batting average has exceeded .250 each year. This year, his batting average reached .331, marking a new career high. Furthermore, Judge is also highly proficient at getting on base; this season, his on-base percentage is an impressive .463, meaning he successfully reaches base nearly 5 out of every 10 at-bats.

Strikeout Rate, Walk Rate, Home Run Rate

The following data compiles his nine-season career stats from 2016-2024.

Data Source: Baseball Reference

Overall, Aaron Judge is a hitter with high “strikeout rate," “walk rate," and “home run rate." His hitting style is clearly that of a “slugger," often trading a high strikeout rate for more home runs. However, Judge is also skilled at selecting pitches and has excellent plate discipline, allowing him to reach base through walks despite his higher strikeout rate. Notably, in the three seasons from 2022 to 2024, his walk rate (BB%) exceeded 15.0%.

It’s worth noting that Aaron Judge’s strikeout rate has significantly declined in recent years. In his first four seasons (2016-2019), Judge’s strikeout rate (K%) was over 30.0%, but in recent years, this rate has noticeably decreased. In fact, during this current season, Judge’s strikeout rate is just 24.6%, the lowest in his nine-year MLB career.

Additionally, from 2022 to 2024, Aaron Judge’s home run rate (HR%) has consistently reached at least 8.0%. This could be related to his improved plate discipline in recent years, allowing him to choose more hittable pitches and capitalize on them, leading to a higher home run rate than in previous seasons.

Stolen Base Rate and Stolen Base Success Rate

The following data compiles his nine-season career stats from 2016-2024.

Data Source: Baseball Reference

Overall, Aaron Judge’s sprint speed is not particularly fast (average sprint speed of 26.8 feet per second, or 8.16 meters per second), ranking only in the middle of the Yankees’ roster. However, in recent years, Judge’s base-stealing technique has been quite impressive. This season, he successfully stole all 6 bases he attempted, and in his career, he has a 75.38% success rate in 65 stolen base attempts (with an 86.11% success rate over the four seasons from 2021 to 2024).

This season, Aaron Judge has 6 stolen bases, ranking second on the Yankees (the first is Anthony Volpe with 20 stolen bases). Since the Yankees mainly rely on power hitting to score runs, they use speed tactics less frequently, with only 53 stolen bases this season, the fewest among the 15 teams in the American League.

The primary reason Aaron Judge has attempted more stolen bases than his teammates this year is related to his role as the third hitter in the lineup. Given the limited offensive efficiency of the Yankees’ fourth hitter this season (with an OPS of 0.653, third-worst in the league, and a slugging percentage of 0.363, fourth-worst), Judge may attempt more stolen bases after reaching base to create more scoring opportunities, hoping to improve the offensive output of the fourth hitter.

Overall, as a slugger, Aaron Judge possesses a more well-rounded skill set, including noticeable improvements in his strikeout rate and walk rate in recent years, which have indirectly boosted his on-base percentage. Additionally, his base-stealing technique has been impressive in recent years. Despite not having exceptional sprint speed, his effectiveness in stealing bases has been strong, helping to enhance the team’s overall offense in many ways.

3️⃣ Breaking Down Aaron Judge’s Swing Mechanics

Here is a slow-motion analysis of Aaron Judge’s swing:
Video Source / Pastime Athletics YT

Aaron Judge is a hitter who clearly favors “hitting the ball into the air" (his career ground ball rate is 37.2%, which is 5.8% lower than the league average of 43.0% during the same period; his fly ball rate is 33.2%, which is 9.1% higher than the same period’s average of 24.1%). Therefore, when preparing to hit, his right side leans backward and downward, not just backward. This movement allows him to hit the ball into the air more effectively.

Even though Aaron Judge’s batting stance involves shifting backward and downward, he maintains excellent balance when lifting his left leg, and his central axis remains very upright. This upright stance helps him achieve faster bat speed during his swing.

This season, Aaron Judge’s average swing speed is 77.0 mph, ranking 4th in all of MLB, showing that his swing speed is extremely fast. Additionally, his average swing length (from the start of the swing to making contact with the ball) is 8.2 feet, also ranking 4th in all of MLB. As a result, Aaron Judge can frequently make solid contact with the ball, with a fast swing speed and sufficient swing length, allowing him to stand out among MLB’s many powerful sluggers and become one of the very best.

This concludes the first part of the article. The next part will analyze Aaron Judge’s performance against different types of pitches, his plate discipline and hitting tendencies, and his performance in various situational contexts.

Sources:

• Baseball Reference
• MLB Official App
• Wikipedia
• Baseball Savant
• Decathlon