In the previous article (Part 2/3), we discussed the Dodgers’ offensive and defensive performances and the prospects these factors bring to the team. This article (Part 3/3), the final piece in the Dodgers’ playoff outlook analysis, will examine the managerial strategies of Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, summarize the team’s performance in various aspects, and conclude with an overall assessment.

Data date:
2024/3/20-2024/7/29

(5) Managerial Skills of Dodgers Manager Dave Roberts

Dave Roberts, the manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, is in his ninth year (2016-2024) managing the team. Over the past nine seasons, Roberts has accumulated a record of 816 wins and 486 losses, a winning percentage of .627. During this time, the Dodgers have finished first in their division eight times (including this year) and second once (in the 2021 season).

From 2016 to 2023, Roberts led the Dodgers to the MLB playoffs every year, winning the World Series in the 2020 season (a season shortened by COVID-19, with a modified postseason format). Additionally, the Dodgers reached the National League Championship Series five times during these seasons, making the postseason a familiar setting for Roberts.

In the last two years (2023-2024), the Dodgers have not frequently employed stolen base tactics. This season, the Dodgers had 1003 opportunities to steal second base but executed only 74 times, with an execution rate of 7.4%, significantly lower than the league average (Rate+ of 80, meaning the Dodgers’ frequency of stealing bases is only 0.8 times the MLB average). Moreover, out of 724 opportunities to steal third base this season, only 6 attempts were successful, an execution rate of 0.8%, considerably below the league average (the Dodgers’ Rate+ for stealing third is only 43).

Since the Dodgers’ overall offensive strategy in recent years has focused on powerful hitting, they tend not to attempt many stolen bases, preferring to rely on the hitters’ power to create scoring opportunities.

It’s noteworthy that of the Dodgers’ 65 successful stolen bases this season, 27 were by Shohei Ohtani, followed by Mookie Betts with 9. Essentially, the Dodgers’ stolen base attempts are concentrated among a few fast players who bat in the top order. This tactic not only creates more scoring opportunities for leading hitters but also clearly delineates roles and strategic tasks among the players.

Furthermore, the Dodgers’ frequency of executing sacrifice bunts is also quite low, largely due to the team’s recent focus on “aggressive" tactics. They prefer to rely on the power-hitting abilities of their hitters rather than small ball tactics to advance runners.

It is also noteworthy that the Dodgers’ use of pinch hitters has decreased this season (averaging 0.74 pinch hitters per game, compared to 1.15 last year), with their execution Rate+ dropping from 142 last season to 96. This change is related to Shohei Ohtani being a very consistent designated hitter this season and to many injuries among the team’s fielders, which have limited the flexibility in substitutions compared to last year.

Regarding the use of pinch runners, the Dodgers averaged only 0.07 pinch runners per game this season, down from 0.09 last year (Rate+ dropped from 56 to 46). This is likely due to many of the Dodgers’ fast runners being regular players, and the team lacking specialized “speedsters" for pinch-running duties. Thus, the Dodgers’ frequency of using pinch-running tactics is relatively low.

It’s worth noting that the Dodgers used an average of 4.3 pitchers per game this season, similar to last season’s 4.4, with a Rate+ of only 103 over the two years (2023-2024), slightly above the league average. Despite numerous injuries among starting pitchers this year, the Dodgers have several long relievers who can significantly reduce the overall workload of the pitching staff.

While the Dodgers rely more on the inherent abilities of their players and use fewer tactical maneuvers, their frequency of issuing intentional walks is higher than average (data for 2023-2024 are all above 140). This not only shows that manager Dave Roberts is very meticulous in his strategic use of different hitters’ strengths and weaknesses but also indicates that the Dodgers’ Rate+ for intentional walks has risen from 87 in 2022 to between 140-150 in recent years.

This is likely related to the scheduling over the past two years (every MLB team faces the other 29 teams each season, with fewer intra-division games), resulting in the Dodgers facing stronger overall competition (mainly from powerful American League teams). Therefore, the Dodgers have increased the frequency of their strategic use of intentional walks.

This season, the Dodgers have challenged 24 umpire decisions with replay assistance (tied for 10th in the league with the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers). However, their success rate in challenges is only 50.0%, tied for 23rd in the league (the MLB average this season is 55.3%), which is not an ideal statistic.

In the eight postseasons from 2016 to 2023, the Dodgers played 84 games, achieving a record of 45 wins and 39 losses, a winning percentage of .536. Especially in the first six years of Roberts’ tenure (2016-2020), the team had a high winning percentage of .571 (44 wins and 33 losses). However, in the last two postseasons (2022-2023), the Dodgers were eliminated in the first round each time, winning only one out of seven games and currently facing a six-game postseason losing streak. For the 2024 Dodgers, overcoming this mental hurdle if they want to perform well in the postseason is crucial.

(6) Summary of the Dodgers’ Performance Across All Aspects, Highlighting Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths

Strength 1: Strong overall offensive performance, excellent scoring capability

This season, the Dodgers’ firepower is a significant strength, with many offensive statistics ranking at the top of the league, and the early-season struggles of the lower order have been resolved. Although many fielders are currently dealing with injuries, and key first baseman Freddie Freeman may temporarily leave the team to care for his sick son, the Dodgers’ depth in the outfield remains robust, with many capable players ready to fill the gaps left by absent starters.

Strength 2: Strong overall starting pitching when fully healthy, which, if effectively returned early, can be formidable

The Dodgers are currently experiencing a slump in pitching performance (especially in the bullpen), partly due to numerous injuries among starting pitchers, leading to fatigue among bullpen pitchers who have been heavily used. However, the Dodgers have many strong starting pitchers in their roster. Although many of these pitchers are currently on the injured list, if they can return to the field soon, the Dodgers’ depth in starting pitching will be more than sufficient. With about two months until this year’s MLB postseason, there is enough time for these pitchers to gradually recover and return to Major League play.

Weaknesses

Weakness 1: Current roster issues across various aspects (including health and defensive positioning stability)

Although the Dodgers’ roster depth is substantial, they have encountered many injury issues this season, with many of the season’s starting players now on the injured list. Additionally, many of these players are over 30 years old, which could lead to a decline in their overall condition and potentially accelerate the degradation of their abilities due to injuries.

Moreover, the Dodgers have had unstable defensive positioning this season, especially in the infield, where many players have been plagued by injuries. The shortage of players, particularly at the shortstop position, with Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas on the injured list, has caused a severe lack of middle infield options. The timing of these players’ return to the field is crucial. Additionally, the Dodgers must strive to prevent further injuries among the current MLB roster players to avoid exacerbating the shortage of available players.

Weakness 2: Can the Dodgers overcome their recent postseason woes, being blown out and eliminated in the first round in recent years?

In the 2022-2023 seasons, the Los Angeles Dodgers won at least 100 games each season and advanced directly to the National League Division Series (NLDS) due to their excellent regular-season performance. However, in both seasons, the Dodgers were eliminated in the first round, and in the postseason, they were defeated by divisional opponents against whom they had performed well during the regular season (in 2022 by the San Diego Padres, with a regular-season record against the Dodgers of 5 wins and 14 losses, a winning percentage of .263; in 2023 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, with a regular-season record against the Dodgers of 5 wins and 8 losses, a winning percentage of .385). That is, the Dodgers’ strong regular-season momentum has almost failed to carry over into the postseason in recent years.

This year (2024), after making numerous reinforcements during the 2023-2024 offseason, many media outlets and fans are highly optimistic about the Dodgers’ chances of making it to the World Series, even considering them the favorites to win this season’s MLB championship. However, not only do the Dodgers need to overcome the psychological hurdles they have faced in recent postseasons, especially since manager Dave Roberts has mainly relied on allowing players to perform freely without many detailed strategic tactics in recent years, which might have limited the Dodgers’ postseason performance, but they also need to navigate through the current wave of injuries to bring a better-conditioned roster into the postseason.

(Trade Deadline Reinforcements, this section can be considered a hidden addition, not disclosed in the previous two articles)

Here, let’s briefly mention the two reinforcements the Dodgers made earlier (US date 7/29), involving a three-team trade with the Cardinals and the Chicago White Sox, and a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays.

(1) Dodgers, Cardinals, White Sox Three-Team Trade (analyzing only the Dodgers’ part)

In this three-team trade, the Dodgers acquired versatile infielder/outfielder Tommy Edman from the Cardinals, right-handed pitcher Michael Kopech from the White Sox, and 17-year-old right-handed pitcher Oliver Gonzalez (playing in the Dominican Summer League (DOSL)) from the Cardinals’ minor league system.

On the other hand, the Dodgers traded outfielder/first baseman Miguel Vargas and two promising prospects (both infielders, Alexander Albertus ranked 23rd and Jeral Perez ranked 17th in the farm system) to the White Sox. Additionally, the White Sox will receive another player to be named later or possibly a cash transaction to finalize the trade.

The Dodgers traded for Tommy Edman primarily because of his versatility in multiple defensive positions. Although he has not yet played in the MLB this year, given the current shortage of outfield and infield options in the Dodgers’ lineup, acquiring a player who can cover multiple positions is expected to significantly deepen the team’s roster.

Additionally, the Dodgers reinforced their bullpen by acquiring Michael Kopech, who has appeared exclusively in relief for the White Sox this season (43 appearances, all in relief). It’s worth mentioning that Kopech served primarily as a starting pitcher for the White Sox during the 2022-2023 seasons. The Dodgers likely traded for Kopech to bolster their bullpen. Given his experience in both starting and relieving roles, Kopech could become another long-relief pitcher (capable of pitching multiple innings) or even serve as a starter if the Dodgers encounter more issues with their starting pitchers.

As for Miguel Vargas, who the Dodgers traded away, he appeared in 30 games this season (80 plate appearances), with an OPS+ of 107, a significant improvement over the previous two years. This season, Vargas’ slugging percentage has notably increased (from .367 in 2023 to .423 in 2024). However, due to stiff competition from other powerful players (especially in the outfield positions he is familiar with) and his unstable defensive performance, his playing time was quite limited. This is one of the reasons the Dodgers chose to trade Vargas to the White Sox, hoping he could get more playing opportunities in his new team.

In this trade, the Dodgers traded away two of their top-ranked farm system infielders, both capable of defensive duties in the middle infield. Although the Dodgers currently lack infield options on the Major League roster, their farm system is robust, with many promising prospects. Additionally, many of the team’s primary infielders are still on the injured list. If these injured players can return to the field soon, the Dodgers’ overall infield strength could shift from “slightly lacking" to “very sufficient."

(2) One-on-One Trade Between the Dodgers and Rays (mainly analyzing the Dodgers’ reinforcement, with a brief analysis of the Rays’ part)

In this trade, the Dodgers acquired Amed Rosario, who can cover both infield and outfield positions, from the Rays and traded minor league relief pitcher Michael Flynn to Tampa Bay. To make room for Amed Rosario on the Major League roster, the team designated long-relief pitcher Ryan Yarbrough for assignment (DFA).

This season, Amed Rosario appeared in 76 games for the Rays, with an OPS+ of 113, the highest of his career, and even boasted a batting average over .300 (.307). Since the Rays have a winning record this season (54 wins and 52 losses, a winning percentage of .509) but little chance of making the playoffs, they opted for a rebuild strategy, trading away several star players from their roster.

The Dodgers acquired Amed Rosario mainly due to a lack of shortstop options. Although Rosario’s defensive performance at shortstop is not stellar (career OAA of -60, this season -2), his excellent hitting this season, combined with his ability to play multiple defensive positions, and his previous tenure with the Dodgers (mid-season 2023), led the Dodgers to trade him back.

Additionally, Ryan Yarbrough, who was DFA’d to make room for Rosario, has had a steady performance in terms of innings pitched for the Dodgers in recent years but has shown much worse control this season (this year’s K/BB is 1.56, compared to 7.60 last year with the Dodgers). Coupled with his high ERA of 6.00 over 9 appearances (15 innings) in July, and the Dodgers’ acquisition of Michael Kopech from the White Sox, who can also serve as both a starter and reliever, the Dodgers chose to DFA Yarbrough, who has been underperforming recently.

As for Michael Flynn, who was traded by the Dodgers to the Rays, he appeared in 28 games for the Dodgers’ Triple-A team (Oklahoma City Baseball Club) this season, pitching 36 1/3 innings with a high ERA of 5.45. Although his ERA is high, he has a low hit rate against opposing batters and a high strikeout capability. The primary reason for the high ERA is Flynn’s susceptibility to home runs.

The Rays traded for Michael Flynn mainly because they lack starting pitchers who can pitch many innings, and many of their powerful pitchers have been traded away. Therefore, they chose Flynn, a pitcher with a high ERA but good control and high strikeout capabilities, hoping to develop him into a new powerhouse pitcher.

(7) Conclusion

Although the Dodgers have considerable strengths in hitting, pitching, and fielding this season, they currently face numerous injury issues, and many of their relief pitchers are in a slump. Even though the Dodgers have a very high statistical probability of making the playoffs, the outcome they can achieve in the postseason remains highly uncertain.

For the Dodgers at this stage, it is crucial how they effectively use their existing roster to compete in the remaining regular season games and even identify more potential postseason contributors. Additionally, if many of the Dodgers’ players on the injured list can return in time, allowing the team to enter the postseason with a more complete roster, this will significantly help their overall competitive strength in the postseason.

This series, “2024 Dodgers Playoff Outlook Analysis," concludes here.

Sources:
MLB Trade Rumors
MLB Official Website
Baseball Reference
Fangraphs
Yahoo Sports
ptt baseball
MLB Encyclopedia
Sports Vision (Quantitative Defensive Metrics – A Discussion on DRS, UZR, OAA, author: Lino) (mainly referencing some advanced metric definitions).
Wikipedia
United News Network
Bleacher Report