In the previous article, we discussed the overall performance of the Dodgers’ starting and bullpen pitchers and their impact on their path to the playoffs. This article (Part 2/3) will discuss the Dodgers’ offensive and defensive performances and analyze how these factors affect their postseason aspirations this season.

The second article (next) will analyze the following content:

(3) Overall offensive strength of the Dodgers

Here are the Dodgers’ offensive statistics:

wRC+ / Normalized Weighted Runs Created

Overall, the Dodgers’ offensive strength is quite robust, with many offensive statistics ranking first in the National League. Whether in terms of getting on base or slugging power, the Dodgers have excelled this year.

During the 2023-2024 offseason, the Dodgers signed the world-renowned “two-way sensation" Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million deal. This year, as Ohtani underwent surgery last year to repair his right hand ligament (not the typical Tommy John surgery but a ligament tissue repair), he is only serving as the designated hitter this season, allowing his pitching arm to fully recover.

This season, Ohtani has posted an excellent wRC+ of 187, the highest of his career including his previous six seasons (2018-2023). In 104 games, he has hit 32 home runs, leading the National League and trailing only the New York Yankees’ “Judge" Aaron Judge (37 home runs) in the entire Major League. Given that Ohtani has mostly batted in the 1st or 2nd spot, his exceptional performance has greatly aided the Dodgers’ overall offense.

This season, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts set up the first three spots in the batting order with hitters who have previously won the MVP award: Mookie Betts (leadoff), Shohei Ohtani (second), and Freddie Freeman (third). Coach Roberts believes that positioning the strongest hitters at the top of the lineup allows them more batting opportunities, thereby providing significant firepower given the team’s overall strength.

In fact, the Dodgers’ top of the lineup is incredibly powerful, with the wRC+ for the top three batters currently at 156, only second to the New York Yankees; the 4-6 spots have a wRC+ of 106, ranked 11th in the league, which is also commendable.

It’s worth noting that at the start of the season, the Dodgers’ 7-9 spots in the batting order were performing very poorly (from March to May, the wRC+ for the last three spots was only 64, ranked 25th in the league, with a batting average of only .198, ranking last in the National League and only ahead of the Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics in the entire Major League).

However, there has been a significant improvement in the Dodgers’ lower order hitting. Starting from June 1st, the team wRC+ for the last three spots has been 119, ranked first in the National League and second in the Major League, only behind the Minnesota Twins. This has greatly enhanced the contributions from the Dodgers’ lower order.

Many of the Dodgers’ key players from last season have been in a slump this year, such as Chris Taylor (OPS+ 56, last year 101) and James Outman (OPS+ 49, last season 113), showing a significant regression compared to last season (2023). These players primarily served as the lower order hitters in the first month of the season, and their slump has had a negative impact on the Dodgers’ overall hitting strength.

However, there has been a resurgence in hitting among some of the Dodgers’ veterans this season, such as Austin Barnes (OPS+ 97 this season, last season 37) and Miguel Rojas (OPS+ 104 this season, last season 68). Notably, Miguel Rojas has been a reliable replacement at shortstop following Mookie Betts’ injury, even outperforming Betts defensively. Rojas’ performance has been crucial for the Dodgers this season.

It’s also worth mentioning that Teoscar Hernandez, who joined the Dodgers this season on a one-year, $23.5 million contract, has been performing exceptionally well, with an OPS+ of 129 (last year with the Seattle Mariners was 107), and has even improved in RBI production and home run hitting. Notably, Hernandez won this year’s Home Run Derby.

Additionally, several young talents have emerged for the Dodgers this season. For instance, Andy Pages, who made his Major League debut this year, currently has an OPS+ of 91 over 350 at-bats and has become a regular outfielder for the Dodgers. Also, Miguel Vargas, who has significantly improved his offensive performance this season (OPS+ 108, last year 82), is now a key player in the Dodgers’ attack.

Currently, many key players in the Dodgers’ lineup are absent. In addition to shortstop Mookie Betts, backup shortstop Miguel Rojas, and third baseman Max Muncy being on the injured list, the team’s main first baseman and consistently strong hitter, Freddie Freeman, is also temporarily away from the field to care for his sick son. How well the replacements perform in their absence is crucial for the Dodgers at this stage. Even for the team’s overall strongest hitter, Shohei Ohtani, how well he can ignite the Dodgers’ offense is especially important.

(4) Overall defensive strength of the Dodgers

Here are the Dodgers’ defensive statistics:

This season, the Dodgers have controlled errors quite well defensively, making only 51 defensive mistakes in 107 games (an average of 0.48 errors per game), ranking 4th in the National League. However, in many advanced defensive metrics (except for range performance), the Dodgers’ overall performance isn’t very good. It’s worth noting that the Dodgers have saved a considerable number of runs compared to the league average this season due to their excellent defensive range.

(Catcher Defense)

This season, the Dodgers have had only two catchers squat behind the plate, Will Smith (702 2/3 innings) and Austin Barnes (255 1/3 innings). Offensively, Will Smith has performed much better than Austin Barnes (Smith’s wRC+ this season is 121, Barnes’ is 78), but defensively, Austin Barnes has outperformed Smith in most advanced defensive metrics.

Therefore, if the Dodgers successfully advance to the playoffs, they might primarily use Will Smith as the starting catcher to boost offensive firepower; in the later stages of the game, they might switch to the defensively stronger Barnes. Additionally, the Dodgers might also call up other minor league catchers to the majors for the remainder of the season to make the overall catcher rotation more flexible.

(Infield Defense)

《1B》
The Dodgers’ main first baseman this season, Freddie Freeman, is currently absent due to a family illness. Although Freeman’s return to the majors isn’t expected to take too long, finding a suitable replacement at first base who can provide defensive stability and even some offensive support will be crucial for the Dodgers at this stage.

《2B》
This season, the Dodgers’ main second baseman is Gavin Lux. Over the past few seasons, he has been highly valuable defensively for the Dodgers, and at the beginning of this season, manager Dave Roberts even considered making him the primary shortstop. However, due to Lux’s unstable throwing from the shortstop position during spring training, the Dodgers ultimately kept him as the main second baseman.

Currently, with other potential second basemen (Miguel Rojas, Chris Taylor, Mookie Betts) injured, Gavin Lux’s defensive performance at second base is particularly important. Due to a shortage of infielders, the Dodgers are likely to call up several young infielders from the minors to share the defensive duties at second base, and they might even strengthen this position before the July 30 trade deadline.

《SS》
The Dodgers’ main shortstop, Miguel Rojas, is currently injured. As a result, the Dodgers signed Nick Ahmed to a major league contract on July 24th, after he was recently placed on waivers by the San Francisco Giants, to take over the shortstop defense during Rojas’ absence.

Ahmed has played 43 innings at shortstop for the Dodgers, handling 15 defensive opportunities without any errors (fielding percentage of 1.000). During this period, his Def value is 0.6, which is quite good considering his playing time with the Dodgers. Additionally, last year Ahmed primarily played as a defensive shortstop for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Although his hitting wasn’t great, his overall defensive ability was quite outstanding, with a Def value of 6.6 over 488 1/3 innings.

It’s not surprising that Nick Ahmed might not stay with the Dodgers after Miguel Rojas and Mookie Betts return. However, if Ahmed can perform well defensively during this period, and even show some offensive capability, it’s quite possible that the Dodgers will continue to give Ahmed playing opportunities after the other shortstops return.

《3B》
The Dodgers’ main third baseman, Max Muncy, is currently on the 60-day injured list. This season, Muncy has performed quite well offensively (OPS+ 124) and has even improved defensively, with a DRS value of 3, much better than last year (last season’s DRS was -3).

Since Max Muncy was injured and placed on the injured list on May 15

th, the Dodgers have used many different players at third base. Among them, DRS data shows that Enrique Hernandez has the best performance with a DRS of 2, while Chris Taylor, who has played more games, has a DRS of -3, and Cavan Biggio, who was traded to the Dodgers this season, has a DRS of -4. Therefore, the Dodgers’ current defensive situation at third base might be one of their bigger defensive problems.

(Outfield Defense)

This season, the Dodgers’ overall outfield defense isn’t very good. Although they haven’t made many errors (8 errors, ranked near the top of the league), their other advanced metrics, such as OAA (-6, ranked 25th in the league) and DRS (-6, ranked 19th), aren’t very ideal.

It’s worth noting that although the Dodgers’ advanced metrics in the outfield aren’t very good, their team UZR/150 (a defensive range metric) is quite high at 3.4, ranked fifth in the league, and they also have good arm strength data. Even the Dodgers’ current main outfielders (Andy Pages, Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages) have shown considerable strength in these two aspects.

(Overall Evaluation)

Overall, due to many injured outfielders in the Dodgers’ lineup, their current defensive strength isn’t sufficient, especially in the infield. Therefore, the timing of many injured players’ return is very important for the Dodgers at this stage, both offensively and defensively.

Additionally, having players with good defensive abilities among the outfielders and catchers who can guide other players’ performances defensively will also be crucial.

This article (Part 2/3) will end here. The next article (also the last in the Dodgers’ analysis series) will discuss manager Dave Roberts’ tactical analysis and summarize the overall strengths and weaknesses of the Dodgers’ capabilities, concluding with a summary.

Sources:
MLB Trade Rumors
MLB Official Website
Baseball Reference
Fangraphs
Yahoo Sports
ptt baseball
MLB Encyclopedia
Sports Vision (Quantitative Defensive Metrics – A Discussion on DRS, UZR, OAA, author: Lino) (mainly referencing some advanced metric definitions).
Wikipedia