🔵 Pre-game Analysis 🔵

This game is crucial for the overall competition in the AL West division in 2024. Before the match, the Houston Astros, who are first in the AL West, are neck and neck with the second-placed Seattle Mariners. The Astros are slightly ahead with a record of 51 wins and 46 losses (a winning percentage of .526), leading the Mariners by a minuscule .001 winning percentage (the Mariners have 52 wins and 47 losses, with a winning percentage of .525).

Before this game, the starting pitchers for the two teams are Framber Valdez for the Astros versus George Kirby for the Mariners.

Framber Valdez has accumulated stats this season of 8 wins and 5 losses, with an ERA of 3.66 over 98 1/3 innings pitched, including 82 strikeouts and 32 walks. Valdez is a pitcher who excels at generating ground balls, with a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 2.58 this season, which is not particularly high over his eight-year career.

Despite a rocky start to the season, with an ERA of 5.34 in May, Valdez’s performance has stabilized as the season progressed. By July, he had started at least six innings in two games and won both.

As for the Mariners’ starting pitcher, George Kirby, he boasts an ERA of 3.29 over 117 2/3 innings pitched this season, with 116 strikeouts and only 13 walks, giving him a superb K/BB ratio of 8.92, showing exceptional control. Unlike the Astros’ ground ball pitcher Valdez, Kirby is a flyball pitcher with a groundball-to-flyball ratio this season of 0.86.

Kirby’s recent form has been excellent, despite some setbacks early in the season, with ERAs under 3.00 in both June and July. Although he did not win any of his three July starts, taking two losses, he managed to pitch at least six innings in each game and effectively limit runs.

Before this match, the Mariners had a July record of 5 wins and 8 losses, while the Astros performed better with 9 wins and 5 losses. Indeed, the Astros made significant strides in June, overcoming earlier season difficulties to jump from the bottom to first place in the AL West. Meanwhile, despite leading the Astros by as many as 10 games earlier in the season, the Mariners’ performance has dipped, dropping them to second place in the division.

The Mariners’ strength this season lies in their pitching, with a team ERA of 3.45 before this game, second only to the Atlanta Braves. However, their offensive performance has been lackluster. Despite a winning percentage above .500, the team’s OPS is only .665, ranking third last in the MLB, and their batting average of .218 is the lowest in the league. Thus, if the Mariners hope to be more competitive in the playoffs, they must improve their overall hitting performance.

As for the Astros, their pitching staff had a rough start to the season but has steadied as the season progressed, with consistent hitting throughout the season. Currently, the Astros have the highest team batting average in the league at .261.

This game could be described as a “spear versus shield" matchup, with the Mariners’ renowned pitching staff facing the powerful Astros’ lineup. Although the Astros have been in better form recently, this series of games is taking place at the Mariners’ home field, and with their starting pitcher Kirby in stable condition this season, it promises to be a high-tension duel for both teams.

This series of articles is divided into two parts:

The first part will cover:
1️⃣ Game highlights (focusing on scoring highlights)
2️⃣ Mariners’ starting pitcher – George Kirby’s pitching performance
3️⃣ Astros’ starting pitcher – Framber Valdez’s pitching performance
4️⃣ Performance of both teams’ bullpen

The second part will cover:
5️⃣ Offensive performance of both teams
6️⃣ Defensive performance of both teams
7️⃣ Season outlook for the Astros and Mariners
8️⃣ Conclusion

1️⃣ Game highlights (focusing on scoring highlights)

(4th inning, Astros 1:0 Mariners)

In the first three innings, both starting pitchers performed excellently. However, in the fourth inning, Alex Bregman got on base first with a hit-by-pitch. With one out, Yainer Diaz hit a fly ball to right field, placing runners on first and second for the Astros. Next, with one out and a count of two balls and two strikes, the Astros executed a strategy, allowing Alex Bregman at second base to take the lead, and the hitter Jon Singleton opted to swing (likely a hit-and-run strategy). Eventually, Singleton struck out on a breaking ball, but Bregman successfully stole third.

With two outs and a runner on third, Astros’ hitter Jeremy Pena managed an infield hit to third base, which scored a run and put the Astros ahead 1:0. However, George Kirby then struck out Jake Meyers, preventing the Astros from extending their lead.

(6th inning, Astros 1:2 Mariners)

In the bottom of the sixth, Framber Valdez, who had not allowed any runs in the previous five innings, walked the first batter, Victor Robles. Next, facing Mariners’ young star Julio Rodriguez, Valdez threw a curveball inside (a pitcher’s pitch in the strike zone’s lower-left corner) that Rodriguez drilled, flipping the score to 2:1 in favor of the Mariners and putting Kirby in line for the win.

Although Valdez quickly recorded two outs in the inning, he walked Jorge Polanco next, trailing in the count with three balls early in the at-bat. Astros’ manager Joe Espada noticed Valdez’s loss of control and decided to pull him from the game.

Astros then brought in Tayler Scott, heavily relied on by the team this season. As Scott has a somewhat sidearm delivery, Mariners’ manager Scott Servais opted to substitute left-handed batter Josh Rojas for right-handed hitter Dylan Moore, since sidearm pitchers tend to be more challenging for same-side hitters. Ultimately, Rojas flew out to third base, ending the inning.

(7th inning, Astros 3:2 Mariners)

Mariners brought in veteran pitcher Ryne Stanek, who had played several seasons with the Astros (2021-2023). He started shaky, walking the first batter, Jeremy Pena, and subsequently faced Jake Meyers, who hit a two-run homer to right field, putting the Astros back in front 3:2. Mariners fans’ joy from Julio Rodriguez’s home run earlier didn’t last long.

Stanek struggled with control, throwing only 14 strikes out of 25 pitches (a strike rate of 56.00%), with many pitches noticeably low, which was key to his not completing the inning. After Meyers’ home run, although Stanek managed two more outs, when Jose Altuve hit an opposite-field single, Mariners’ coaching staff decided to switch pitchers.

Trent Thornton, replacing Stanek, faced Alex Bregman next. With the first pitch, runner Altuve attempted to steal but was successfully thrown out by catcher Mitch Garver (2-6).

(8th inning, Astros 4:2 Mariners)

In the top of the eighth with two outs, strong hitter Yainer Diaz hit a solo home run off Trent Thornton, who had continued pitching from the previous inning, on a high inside sinker, extending the Astros’ lead to 4:2. However, Thornton then struck out Jon Singleton, preventing further damage.

(8th inning, Astros 4:2 Mariners)

In the bottom of the eighth with one out, Julio Rodriguez, who had hit a go-ahead home run in his last at-bat, faced Astros’ reliever Ryan Pressly and hit a deep fly ball to right field, looking like it would be a solo homer. However, right fielder Trey Cabbage reached over the home run wall to make a spectacular catch, significantly deflating the Mariners’ momentum.

With two outs, Pressly hit Mariners’ hitter Cal Raleigh with a pitch, and the next batter, power-hitting catcher Mitch Garver, faced a low slider and hit a fly ball towards the left-field corner, which looked like it would drop for a hit. However, Astros’ left fielder Joey Loperfido made a diving catch, ending the inning and leaving a runner stranded.

(9th inning, Astros 4:2 Mariners)

In the bottom of the ninth, Astros’ closer Josh Hader came in to pitch. Facing leadoff batter Jorge Polanco, he induced a flyout to center field (1 out). Then, Hader struck out pinch hitter Ryan Bliss, a right-handed batter, with a high fastball. Next, facing Jonatan Clase (who had pinch-run in the seventh and was picked off), Hader believed he had signaled for a timeout to umpire Jeremie Rehak, who did not acknowledge it, leading to some verbal exchange between Hader and the umpire.

Nevertheless, Hader then struck out Mariners’ number nine hitter Luke Raley with several outside sliders, securing the Astros’ 4:2 victory over the Mariners. Following this game, the Astros officially surpassed the Mariners by 1.0 game in the AL West standings, solidifying their lead.

2️⃣ Mariners’ starting pitcher – George Kirby’s pitching performance

Here are today’s pitching stats for Mariners’ starting pitcher George Kirby:

Innings pitched: 6 1/3

Runs & earned runs allowed: 1 run, 1 earned

Hits allowed: 4

Home runs allowed: 0
Strike rate: 66.67% (66 strikes out of 99 pitches)
Strikeouts: 6
Walks: 0
Hit by pitches: 1
Groundball-to-flyball ratio: 2.500 (5 groundouts / 2 flyouts)
Pitch usage:
– Slider: 31.31% (31 pitches)
– Sinker: 25.25% (25 pitches)
– Four-seam fastball: 23.23% (23 pitches)
– Splitter: 11.11% (11 pitches)
– Curveball: 9.09% (9 pitches)

During the game, George Kirby’s overall pitching was quite spectacular, not only achieving six strikeouts and no walks but also mostly preventing the Astros hitters from making strong contact.

Most issues Kirby faced occurred in the third inning when he allowed two hits and even hit leadoff batter Alex Bregman with a pitch while ahead in the count (2 strikes, 2 balls). However, his overall pitch placement was not poor, generally managing to keep the ball low when needed. But in a crucial moment facing Jeremy Pena, a not well-hit ground ball (initial velocity 76.8 mph) resulted in an infield single and a run scored.

Overall, George Kirby’s control was ideal, with no walks given and a 2:1 strike-to-ball ratio (exactly 66:33).

Before this game, Kirby had been using his various pitches fairly evenly. Even his most frequently used four-seam fastball had only a 36.0% usage rate, and he often used a two-seam sinker as a fast pitch, with a 22.5% usage rate. In terms of breaking pitches, Kirby’s slider has been a common weapon against hitters, with a 22.8% usage rate.

Notably, before this game, Kirby’s four-seam fastball had the lowest batting average against (.196) for the season and generated a high swing-and-miss rate (30.4%).

In this game, Kirby’s slider was used extensively, accounting for 31.31% of his pitches (31/99), making it the most frequently used pitch in this game. Additionally, the usage rates of his sinker and four-seam fastball were also over 20%. Overall, Kirby primarily relied on his slider in this game, while maintaining a balanced use of his fastballs, with the four-seam and two-seam sinker almost equally split.

Moreover, in this game, Kirby’s pitch velocities across all types were higher than his season averages, and he also performed well in terms of spin rate, which allowed him to deliver an excellent pitching performance.

As for the swing-and-miss rate in this game, Astros hitters were quite aggressive against Kirby’s pitches (swinging over fifty percent of the time), which is mainly due to Kirby aggressively attacking the strike zone (overall pitch entry into the strike zone was 54%). In this game, Astros hitters had high swing-and-miss rates against Kirby’s sliders and split-finger fastballs (both over 30.0%). However, they swung less frequently against his fastballs.

In this game, Kirby pitched six innings, and the Mariners led 1:0. However, his teammate Julio Rodriguez immediately helped him avoid a potential loss with a home run in the next half inning, even giving Kirby a chance to earn a win. However, in the subsequent half inning, the Astros also scored a two-run homer, ultimately settling Kirby’s game result as a no-decision.

3️⃣ Astros’ starting pitcher – Framber Valdez’s pitching performance

Here are today’s pitching stats for Astros’ starting pitcher Framber Valdez:

Innings pitched: 5 2/3
Runs & earned runs allowed: 2 runs, 2 earned
Hits allowed: 3
Home runs allowed: 1
Strike rate: 59.00% (59 strikes out of 100 pitches)
Strikeouts: 6
Walks: 4
Hit batters: 1
Groundball-to-flyball ratio: 3.500 (7 groundouts / 2 flyouts)
Pitch usage:
– Sinker: 43.00% (43 pitches)
– Curveball: 39.00% (39 pitches)
– Changeup: 11.00% (11 pitches)
– Slider: 6.00% (6 pitches)
– Four-seam fastball: 1.00% (1 pitch)

In this game, Astros’ starting pitcher Framber Valdez pitched 5 2/3 innings. Although he did not allow any runs in the first five innings, he faced some control issues in the sixth inning, walking the leadoff batter Victor Robles. With no outs and a runner on first, he gave up a two-run homer to left field to Julio Rodriguez, leaving the game with his team trailing 1:2, making Valdez the losing pitcher at that point.

Valdez generated a significant number of ground balls in this game, with a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 3.500 (7 groundouts, 2 flyouts). He made it difficult for opposing hitters to make strong contact, which is a major strength of Valdez’s pitching.

Valdez primarily used his sinker, which had a usage rate of 51.4% before this game, complemented by a substantial number of curveballs (27.8%) and occasionally a changeup (15.0%).

Before this game, Valdez’s sinker velocity had decreased compared to last year (from 95.3 mph to 93.8 mph). Although the overall batting average against it (before this game) had risen from .274 last season to .310, he performed better in suppressing extra-base hits from opposing hitters. Additionally, Valdez’s curveball has been a highly effective pitch since he debuted in the major leagues in 2018, with a batting average against consistently below .160 each year.

In this game, Valdez’s overall control was not particularly good, with a strike rate of only 59.00% (less than sixty percent). This likely related to his high usage of curveballs (39.00%) in this game. Curveballs are generally not a pitch used by pitchers to attack the strike zone, so a high usage can naturally result in a lower overall strike rate. However, it’s worth noting that Valdez generated a high swing-and-miss rate with his curveballs in this game, achieving a rate of 42.11% (19 curveballs thrown, 8 swings and misses).

Additionally, Valdez performed well in terms of pitch spin in this game, especially with his sinker and changeup, achieving velocities higher than his season averages by at least 1.0 mph.

4️⃣ Performance of both teams’ bullpen

Before this game, there wasn’t a significant difference in overall bullpen performance between the two teams. Although the Mariners had a better overall team ERA (Mariners 3.46, Astros 3.99), the bullpen ERAs of both teams were quite close, with the Mariners ranking 10th in the league at 3.64 and the Astros 11th at 3.69.

The main difference between the two teams in pitching stats stems from their starting pitchers. The Mariners’ starting rotation has an ERA of 3.26, ranking second in the league, while the Astros’ starters have an ERA of 4.19, ranking 18th.

In this game, both starting pitchers, Framber Valdez (HOU) and George Kirby (SEA), did not factor into the decision, but the performance of their bullpens significantly influenced the game.

《Mariners’ bullpen performance analysis in this game》

The first Mariners’ bullpen pitcher in this game was Ryan Stanek
(who had played several seasons (2021-2023) with the Astros). Since joining the Mariners this season, he has also been a key figure in their bullpen.

In recent years, Stanek has been quite capable of generating strikeouts, with a K/9 value of 10.01 after this game, although this is already the third lowest in his 8-year professional career. One of Stanek’s bigger issues has been susceptibility to home runs (although he has controlled it fairly well in recent years; HR/9 after this game was 1.16), which could certainly be better for a reliever.

In this game, Stanek struggled with control, even walking the leadoff batter Jeremy Pena in his inning. Subsequently, he gave up a two-run homer to Jake Meyers to center-right field, giving the Astros a 3:2 lead. Stanek’s control issues prevented him from finishing the inning, which was a disappointing aspect of his performance.

As for the other two Mariners’ pitchers in this game – Trent Thornton and Austin Voth, although they combined to pitch 2 1/3 innings allowing one run (Thornton was hit by Yainer Diaz in the top of the eighth), they managed to stabilize a rather unstable situation when they took over, showing solid performances.

It’s worth mentioning that Trent Thornton was selected by the Astros in the fifth round of the 2015 draft. However, at the end of the 2017 season, he was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays, where he played five major league seasons (2019-2023).

In July, the Mariners’ bullpen performed quite well, with a team bullpen ERA of 2.08 before this game, ranking fourth among the 30 major league teams. Notably, several Mariners’ winning bullpen pitchers had a record of no runs allowed in July, such as Tayler Saucedo and Andrés Muñoz. However, the Mariners need to improve the stability of their non-winning bullpen pitchers, as their performance in this area has been relatively unstable.

《Astros’ bullpen performance analysis in this game》

The first Astros’ bullpen pitcher to appear in this game, Tayler Scott, came on when the team was trailing 1:2. However, Scott managed to resolve the situation in the bottom of the sixth without allowing the Mariners to extend their lead; and the team also reversed the score in the top of the seventh, giving Scott a win. Ultimately, he also earned his seventh win of the season.

After this game, Tayler Scott has appeared in 42 games this season with the Astros, with an ERA of only 1.35, which is better than his performance in previous seasons and could be considered a career year. Although he has appeared in all 42 games as a reliever, he has earned 7 wins, particularly during June and July when the Astros performed well, earning 3 wins each month. In some ways, Tayler Scott’s situation is somewhat like a ‘turnaround pitcher’, similar to the phenomenon often seen in recent years with the retired bullpen pitcher Ta-Yuan Kuan from the CTBC Brothers in the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL), where a relief pitcher frequently earns many wins.

In fact, all three of the Astros’ winning bullpen pitchers encountered some overall instability today. Among them, Bryan Abreu, who came on in the bottom of the seventh, walked the Mariners’ leadoff batter Mitch Haniger, prompting the Mariners to substitute Jonatan Clase to run for Haniger. However, Clase was picked off due to straying too far from the base, significantly relieving the pressure on Abreu on the mound at the time.

Also, in the bottom of the eighth, Astros’ winning bullpen ‘Left-Right Closer guards’, right-handed pitcher Ryan Pressly, generally made solid contact. In the past, he has been known for using sliders to suppress hitters’ extra-base hits, but in this game, the entry points of several sliders were too high, and two sliders were nearly targeted for long hits by hitters. This is something he needs to adjust in the next game.

In the bottom of the ninth, Astros’ closer Josh Hader, although facing leadoff batter Jorge Polanco who hit a deep fly ball, managed to catch it. Subsequently, Hader’s sinker showed its effectiveness, and facing the next three hitters, he primarily used high-entry-angle sinkers, with velocities generally exceeding 96 mph, making it quite difficult for hitters to handle. Eventually, Hader successfully achieved his 20th save of the season.

At the beginning of this season, Josh Hader’s performance was not smooth, with an ERA of 7.45 in April. However, his condition stabilized immediately in May, reducing his ERA to 1.35, greatly improving his overall performance. During June and July, his monthly ERAs were between 3-4, but during these two months, he did not fail in 13 save opportunities, showing very stable overall performance.

This article ends here, and the next one will cover the offensive and defensive performances of both teams, the outlook for the rest of the season, and a final summary.

Sources:
MLB official website
Fangraphs
Wikipedia
Baseball Savant