The Minnesota Twins eliminated the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series with a 2-0 sweep. This victory not only marked their first postseason win in 19 years (since the first game of the 2004 ALDS against the Yankees) but also their first series win in 21 years (since they defeated the Athletics 3-2 in the 2002 ALDS).

Next, the Twins faced the Houston Astros in the American League Division Series. The Astros had made it to the AL Championship Series for six consecutive years. Despite not always having the best regular season performance stats—such as in 2020 when their winning percentage was below .500—they have a clear knack for clinching postseason victories.

Below is a breakdown into 9 segments for analysis:

1. Pre-playoff expectations and strengths of both teams
2. Performance of pitchers from both teams
3. Batting performance of both teams
4. Defensive performance of both teams
5. Analysis of Game 1
6. Analysis of Game 2
7. Analysis of Game 3
8. Analysis of Game 4
9. Summary

This article will first cover segments (1) through (4). The next will cover (5) through (9).

(1) Pre-playoff expectations and strengths of both teams

This year, the Astros and Twins had similar records, but the Twins, despite weaker divisional performance, clinched their division just a few days before the season ended. The Astros secured their division on the last day of the regular season, tying the Rangers with a record of 90 wins and 72 losses but taking the title due to better head-to-head results (Astros were 9-4 against the Rangers).

Most fans favored the Astros to win the series, given their long-standing postseason success compared to the recent struggles of the Twins in the playoffs, even though the Twins’ divisional championship record wasn’t very impressive. Comparing the regular season stats, both teams had good batting, the Twins had slightly better starting pitching, and the Astros had a stronger bullpen.

In terms of defensive stats, the Twins were tied for third with 68 errors, and the Astros ranked 13th with 81 errors. However, advanced defensive metrics showed the Astros as superior, with a team Defensive Runs Saved (Def) value of 10.6, ranking ninth, while the Twins were at -8.2, ranking nineteenth.

(2) Performance of pitchers from both teams

🔹 Starting Pitchers Comparison

• Astros | 21 1/3 innings | 3.00 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 2.17 K/BB | .205 BAA
• Twins | 16 1/3 innings | 4.50 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 8.00 K/BB | .299 BAA

🔹 Season Stats for Starters

• Astros | 900 1/3 innings | 4.17 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 2.73 K/BB | .248 BAA
• Twins | 895 1/3 innings | 3.82 ERA | 1.16 WHIP | 4.35 K/BB | .240 BAA

Astros starting pitchers:

• G1 Justin Verlander: 6 innings, 0 ER, 6 K
• G2 Framber Valdez: 4.1 innings, 5 ER, 5 K
• G3 Cristian Javier: 5 innings, 0 ER, 9 K
• G4 Jose Urquidy: 5.2 innings, 2 ER, 6 K

Twins starting pitchers:

• G1 Bailey Ober: 3 innings, 3 ER, 2 K
• G2 Pablo Lopez: 7 innings, 0 ER, 7 K
• G3 Sonny Gray: 4 innings, 4 ER, 6 K
• G4 Joe Ryan: 2 innings, 1 ER, 1 K

The Twins’ starting rotation had a better regular season but underperformed in the series compared to the Astros, except in Game 2. This was pivotal in the series outcome, especially in Game 3 where Cristian Javier outpitched Sonny Gray, despite being a less prominent name in the Astros’ rotation.

🔹 Relief Pitchers Comparison

• Astros | 15 1/3 innings | 3.60 ERA | 0.93 WHIP | 6.50 K/BB | .189 BAA
• Twins | 19 1/3 innings | 5.21 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 3.00 K/BB | .225 BAA

Astros’ bullpen was notably stable, contributing significantly to their series win, especially in tight situations. The Twins’ bullpen was not as effective, which was detrimental in closely contested games.

(3) Batting performance

of both teams

Season batting stats:

• Astros: .259 AVG, .331 OBP, .437 SLG, .768 OPS, 222 HRs, 107 SBs, 5.10 R/G
• Twins: .243 AVG, .326 OBP, .428 SLG, .754 OPS, 233 HRs, 86 SBs, 4.80 R/G

Series batting stats:

• Astros: .261 AVG, .311 OBP, .507 SLG, .818 OPS, 10 HRs, 1 SB, 5.00 R/G
• Twins: .198 AVG, .308 OBP, .373 SLG, .681 OPS, 5 HRs, 0 SB, 3.25 R/G

In the playoffs, the Astros distributed their offensive production more evenly, which was crucial given the less than ideal performance in scoring positions. The Twins, despite a few standout performances, struggled collectively, which was reflected in their lower team batting averages and OPS.

(4) Defensive performance of both teams

Both teams displayed strong defensive performances in the series, with only a few errors. Advanced metrics indicated the Astros’ defensive capabilities were superior, which played a role in their overall series victory. The Twins’ ability to limit errors was commendable but not enough to overcome the Astros’ balanced attack.

Both teams performed well defensively this season, though there were some differences. The Twins made very few errors, tied with the Cardinals for the third fewest in the league at 67, while the Astros excelled in several advanced defensive metrics, ranking among the top in the league. During the series, infielders from both teams demonstrated numerous spectacular plays, intercepting powerful ground balls effectively.