In the previous article, we analyzed the pre-series predictions, pitching, hitting, and defensive performances for both teams. This article will discuss the conditions of each game and provide a summary.

(5) Game 1 Analysis

Game Highlights Video (YT MLB)

Team	Twins	Astros
Score	4	6
Hits	9	9
Home Runs	2	3
Total Bases	18	19
Stolen Bases	0	1
Left on Base	8	6
Errors	0	0
Batting Average	0.265	0.290
Hits/At Bats	9-34	9-31
Struck Out	13	7
Walks	3	4
Runners in Scoring Position	1-12	2-10

(Game Explanation & Tactical Analysis)

Both teams performed well offensively, totaling 5 home runs and 37 total bases. However, their performances with runners in scoring position were less than ideal, particularly for the Twins, who missed several opportunities to tie or take the lead in the first three innings and the eighth inning.

Astros’ starter Justin Verlander excelled, pitching 6.0 scoreless innings, allowing only 4 hits, and striking out 6, while issuing 3 walks. Verlander’s sliders and curveballs created a high swing-and-miss rate of 57.14%, indicating the Twins’ hitters struggled against these pitches.

The Astros built an early lead with home runs in the first and third innings by Altuve and Alvarez, respectively. They further extended their lead by scoring 2 runs off 3 hits against Kenta Maeda in the fifth inning.

However, Hector Neris struggled in the seventh inning, allowing the Twins to nearly close the gap after back-to-back home runs by Jorge Polanco and Royce Lewis, making the score 6-5.

Bryan Abreu, who took over from Neris, managed to secure critical strikeouts with runners in scoring position, preserving the Astros’ lead.

In the top of the ninth, Astros closer Ryan Pressly efficiently handled the Twins’ top hitters, securing a 6-4 victory for the Astros.

(6) Game 2 Analysis

Game Highlights Video (YT MLB)

Team	Twins	Astros
Score	6	2
Hits	10	7
Home Runs	1	1
Total Bases	15	11
Stolen Bases	0	0
Left on Base	7	6
Errors	0	0
Batting Average	0.294	0.212
Hits/At Bats	10-34	7-33
Struck Out	11	8
Walks	4	2
Runners in Scoring Position	2-6	1-7

(Game Explanation & Tactical Analysis)

This game featured a pitching duel between Framber Valdez of the Astros and Pablo Lopez of the Twins, who had previously performed well in the 2023 ALWC G1. The game was expected to be a tight pitcher’s battle based on their season performances.

Carlos Correa, formerly of the Astros, shone for the Twins, going 3-for-4 with three RBIs, including the game-winning hit.

Valdez struggled, allowing hits and walks due to his pitches, especially his sinkers, being too high in the zone. The Twins capitalized on these mistakes, connecting well throughout the game, which could have been more decisive had it not been for the Astros’ defense.

Lopez pitched over 5 innings, giving the Twins’ bullpen a much-needed break after the short outing by Bailey Ober in the previous game.

(7) Game 3 Analysis

Game Highlights Video (YT MLB)

Team	Astros	Twins
Score	9	1
Hits	14	3
Home Runs	4	0
Total Bases	28	4
Stolen Bases	0	0
Left on Base	9	9
Errors	0	1
Batting Average	0.341	0.103
Hits/At Bats	14-41	3-29
Struck Out	12	14
Walks	3	7
Runners in Scoring Position	3-14	1-9

(Game Explanation & Tactical Analysis)

This loss was particularly damaging for the Twins, falling behind 1-2 in the series at home and losing by a significant margin. A critical error by Alex Kirilloff in the first inning failed to stop a ground ball that could have potentially led to a double play, allowing the Astros to score four runs in that inning.

The Twins had multiple chances with runners in scoring position, especially in innings where Astros’ starter Cristian Javier struggled with control. However, they failed to capitalize, striking out five times in seven critical at-bats.

Javier managed to overcome his control issues by adjusting his pitching strategy with catcher Martin Maldonado, allowing him to complete five innings and earn the win.

Jose Abreu was particularly effective for the Astros, hitting two home runs and driving in five runs, including a crucial two-run homer in the first inning.

(8) Game 4 Analysis

Game Highlights Video (YT MLB)

Team	Astros	Twins
Score	3	2
Hits	6	3
Home Runs	2	2
Total Bases	12	10
Stolen Bases	0	0
Left on Base	3	2
Errors	0	0
Batting Average	0.182	0.103
Hits/At Bats	6-33	3-29
Struck Out	10	14
Walks	0	2
Runners in Scoring Position	0-0	0-1

(Game Explanation & Tactical Analysis)

Facing elimination, the Twins opted for a bullpen game, pulling starter Joe Ryan after just 2.0 innings despite no apparent discomfort, likely due to his susceptibility to home runs and the Astros’ heavy hitting in the series.

Astros’ starter Jose Urquidy pitched effectively, scattering three hits across 5.2 innings, including two home runs. The Astros’ bullpen held the Twins hitless for the remainder of the game.

The strategy to use multiple relievers allowed the Twins to keep the game close, but the Astros’ consistent pitching and defensive play ultimately secured their advancement to the ALCS for the seventh consecutive year.

(9) Summary

The Astros were the only top-seeded team in the 2023 division series to avoid an upset, demonstrating their ability to perform in critical postseason games. They will face a tough challenge in the next round against the Texas Rangers, who have yet to lose a postseason game this year.

For the Twins, the season was a success, breaking a long postseason win drought and showing significant promise for the future, especially with emerging talents like Royce Lewis.

Sources:
MLB Official Site
Fangraphs
Baseball Reference
Baseball Savant