The previous article discussed why the Orioles made significant progress last year, as well as the analysis of offseason reinforcements and the 2023 starting and bullpen pitcher rotations. This article will delve into the catchers, infielders, and outfielders, provide an overall assessment, and summarize based on the previous discussions.

(5) 2023 Orioles Catchers Analysis (Offense and Defense)

Let’s first discuss the 2023 Orioles’ catching situation, analyzing based on their hitting performance and defensive capabilities.

Here are the 2022 Orioles catchers’ performance statistics, divided into overall hitting and defensive data:

Hitting ⬇️
Team batting average: .220 (17th in the league)
Team weighted on-base average: .312 (7th in the league)
Team wRC+: 103 (8th in the league)
Team home runs: 18 (tied for 13th in the league)
Team RBIs: 65 (16th in the league)
Team stolen bases: 5 (tied for 6th in the league)
Team Off (offensive value measurement): 6.3 (5th in the league)

Defense ⬇️ (see my previous article for details)
Team fielding percentage: .989 (27th in the league)
Team errors: 14 (tied for 27th in the league)
Team caught stealing rate: 32% (3rd in the league)
Team DRS: 8 (7th in the league)
Team FRM: -5.7 (21st in the league)
Team Def (defensive value measurement): 4.6 (23rd in the league)

Total ⬇️
Total WAR: 3.4 (10th in the league)

Definitions:
DRS (Defensive Runs Saved): A statistic that calculates how many runs a player prevents for their team.
FRM (Framing Runs): A catcher’s value created through pitch framing, converted into runs saved for the team, according to the Fangraphs version.
wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus): Quantifies a hitter’s contribution to the team’s offense, with 100 being average.

From the data above, advanced metrics show quite good performance, although the batting average ranks below the middle. Offensive stats like wRC+ and Off are in the top 10 in the league, and the on-base percentage (OBP) not listed above ranks 5th in the league at .321, with the highest walk rate (BB%) in the league at 12.0%, which increases on-base opportunities.

As for defense, the data is not very promising, except for a high caught stealing rate and a decent DRS ranking, showing that while pitch framing is good, overall defensive performance needs improvement.

However, Adley Rutschman’s performance this year in the majors compared to other catchers is quite strong, with a WAR of 5.3 ranking second (the top is J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies) and a Def rating of 13.1, 8th in the league. But his game appearances, 113, rank only 13th among major league catchers, yet his stats are top-tier, making it highly likely he will be the team’s primary catcher next year. It was mentioned earlier that Rutschman and another catcher, Chirinos, have vastly different hitting stats, suggesting the Orioles’ hitting data might be dragged down by Chirinos’ performance.

Additionally, the Orioles acquired James McCann from the Mets using cash and a player to be named later. McCann’s hitting last year was also not ideal, with a slash line of .195/.257/.282, even worse than Chirinos. However, McCann has had strong offensive seasons in the past, notably a wRC+ of 141 during the shortened 2020 season with the White Sox, when his slugging was .536. Although his overall hitting was poor last year, he still has potential.

The Orioles likely value his defensive breakthrough this year as well, with a FRM of 2.1 and an rCERA that is much higher than the team’s primary catcher Tomas Nido (-4), with McCann at 2. These metrics are also better than last year’s Chirinos, and at ages 32-33, McCann has ample experience and is not too old to serve as the team’s backup catcher.

Here, I predict the Orioles’ 1-2 catchers in the majors will be:
Rutschman (1), McCann (2), and if a third is needed, two catchers projected at Triple-A (one left-handed, one right-handed), Anthony Bemboom and Mark Kolozsvary, also have a chance. (Mark Kolozsvary was the primary catcher for the USA team at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, held in 2021 due to the pandemic).

(6) 2023 Orioles Infielders Analysis (Offense and

Defense)

Since the infield has four positions: first base, second base, third base, and shortstop, I won’t list complete data for each but will mention wRC+ (offense), UZR/150 (defense), and WAR (overall).

UZR/150 Definition: Indicates how many runs a player would allow over 150 games compared to an average defender at that position. The higher the value, the more runs saved per game.

Here are the main players’ data, referring to Fangraphs’ 2023 team depth predictions:

First Base:
wRC+ 108 (16th in the league)
UZR/150: 1.3 (12th in the league)
WAR 2.6 (12th in the league)

Second Base:
wRC+ 99 (17th in the league)
UZR/150: -0.7 (17th in the league)
WAR 18.9 (16th in the league)

Shortstop:
wRC+ 76 (26th in the league)
UZR/150: 4.2 (7th in the league)
WAR 2.1 (20th in the league)

Third Base:
wRC+ 92 (21st in the league)
UZR/150: 4.4 (8th in the league)
WAR 2.1 (21st in the league)

From the data above, it’s clear that last year’s Orioles infield hitting was suboptimal, especially at shortstop (SS) and third base (3B), both ranking in the lower league tiers. However, both positions rank in the top 10 for defensive range (UZR/150), indicating that the Orioles’ infield defense excels, with first base performing around average overall.

(2B)
However, the Orioles’ main second baseman in 2022, Rougned Odor, declared free agency in the offseason, and the Orioles signed Adam Frazier, also a free agent from the Mariners, to a one-year contract, strongly suggesting he will take over second base. Frazier’s UZR/150 in 2022 was 0.0, better than Odor’s -2.8, indicating that overall defensive range at second base might significantly improve this season.

Here, let’s briefly mention a player who can play both infield and outfield – Terrin Varva. In 2022, he excelled at Triple-A, posting a slash line of .324/.435/.451, with a wRC+ of 144 and an exceptional ability to draw walks, with a BB% of 13.5%, leading to an OBP over .400.

Varva also made his major league debut mid-season last year, posting a respectable slash line of .258/.340/.337 with a wRC+ of 97, and played both at second base and corner outfield positions (LF, RF).

(1B)
As for the Orioles’ primary first baseman, it’s very likely that Ryan Mountcastle will continue in this role next year. Last season, he played 145 games and posted a slash line of .250/.305/.423 with an OPS+ of 105, along with 22 home runs and 85 RBIs, demonstrating strong slugging ability. His hitting has been consistently good over the past three years, with a cumulative OPS+ of 112, and he even hit 33 home runs in 2021. His defensive performance at first base is also decent.

As for backup first basemen, Lewin Diaz, who was signed from the Pirates (after being DFA’d), traded to the Braves, then DFA’d by the Braves and re-signed by the Orioles, is a good option. Diaz has spent three seasons in the majors, with a slash line of .181/.227/.340. Although his batting average is low, he has slugging potential, with an ISO of .159. Being a left-handed hitter, he has a good chance to share first base duties with Mountcastle in the 2023 season.

Besides Diaz, who is currently between Triple-A and the MLB, Josh Lester, who signed a minor league contract with the Orioles during the 2022-2023 offseason, also has a good chance. His recent power-hitting performance in the Tigers’ minor leagues has been strong, with a slugging percentage of .479 at Triple-A in 2022, and he also has major league experience (he replaced an injured Miguel Cabrera). Like Diaz, Lester is also a left-handed hitter.

(3B)
At third base, the primary player next year will likely still be Ramon Urias. In 2022, he posted a slash line of .248/.305/.414, with 16 homers and 51 RBIs, and his WAR rose from 1.9 in 2021 to 3.6.

Interestingly, Urias primarily played second base and shortstop in 2021, with only 10 appearances at third base. In 2022

, he became the team’s main third baseman, defending the position in 98 games. His Def value of 2022 ranks fourth among all major league third basemen, representing a significant breakthrough for the Orioles at this position, with a DRS of 14, ranking third in the league. However, his defensive innings are still significantly fewer than most other third basemen.

(SS)
As for the shortstop, the rotation will likely include multiple players, with Gunnar Henderson and Jorge Mateo expected to take on the role.

Gunnar Henderson, a rookie who made his major league debut in the 2022 season, played 34 games and posted a slash line of .259/.348/.440 with a wRC+ of 126, along with 4 home runs and 18 RBIs. His ability to draw walks is also noteworthy, with a walk rate of 12.1%. Defensively, Henderson played second base, third base, and shortstop in 2022, with the highest UZR/150 at shortstop (10.7). It’s very likely that he will be moved to shortstop in the new season, with Urias, who has better defensive stats at third base, staying at that position.

2022 Gunnar Henderson Highlights

Jorge Mateo, on the other hand, was the Orioles’ main shortstop in 2022, playing 150 games and posting a slash line of .221/.267/.379 with a wRC+ of 82, significantly lower than Henderson’s (purely based on surface stats). His hitting has also been weak over the past few years, with a high strikeout rate exceeding 25.00% from 2020 to 2022, and a low walk rate, meaning he strikes out more than once in every four at-bats. His career K/BB ratio is also close to 6, indicating suboptimal plate discipline. However, his defensive performance at shortstop in 2022, with a UZR/150 of 5.2, is quite good, though still lower overall than Henderson’s (despite a significant difference in games played).

It’s worth noting that Mateo possesses excellent speed, stealing 35 bases in 2022 with a career stolen base success rate of 79.3%. However, Henderson also has a high stolen base success rate in the minors, with 22 successful steals and only 3 failures in 2022 across Double-A and Triple-A, giving him a success rate of 88%. This makes it quite likely that Henderson will be the primary shortstop in the new season.

Additionally, the Orioles have several potential shortstop candidates in Triple-A, including Joey Ortiz and Jordan Westberg, both of whom had strong hitting performances in Triple-A last year, with slash lines of .346/.400/.567 for Ortiz and .273/.361/.508 for Westberg. Both are ranked in the top ten of the team’s prospects and can play second base, third base, and shortstop, potentially making their way to the majors in 2023 to strengthen the Orioles’ infield depth.

(Overall)
Overall, the Orioles’ infield depth is quite good, with a stable selection at first base and shortstop, and a reasonable setup at second base. However, third base remains a question mark. Although Urias performed well defensively last year, he only played about 60% of a full season’s games at third base. Whether he can maintain such performance over more games in the new season is uncertain.

Outfielders: The Orioles have a sufficient number of corner outfield options, but there is a lack of depth in center field. While Mullins’ performance is relatively stable, it’s unlikely that he can solidify the position alone, and other potential replacements are in Triple-A, which the Orioles’ coaching staff will need to consider.

As for the designated hitter, various outfield players will likely rotate in this role. After last year’s primary DH departed, no other player is particularly suited for the position, and given the youth and relative lack of “power-hitting" ability among current Orioles players, the new season may require a more flexible approach to filling the DH spot.

(9) Summary

The 2023 Orioles are very promising, although they compete in the tough AL East, where all four other teams won 90 games in 2021 (the Orioles were the exception). However, due to changes in the new season’s format, which reduce the frequency of divisional matchups, and considering that the Rays and Red Sox are more focused on restructuring this offseason, the Orioles might perform even better than last year.

Sources: Sports Vision, Fangraphs