This article is the first in my series analyzing a total of 48 baseball teams from Taiwan, the United States, and Japan, discussing the outlook for the 2023 Baltimore Orioles.

2022 was undoubtedly the most significant year of growth for the Orioles in recent years. The year before (2021), they only secured 52 wins and 110 losses, tying with the Diamondbacks for the worst record in Major League Baseball. However, last year they achieved 83 wins and 79 losses. Although they still missed the postseason, it was a considerable breakthrough for the Orioles. During the 2018-2019 and 2021 “full" seasons (the 2020 MLB season was shortened to 60 games due to COVID-19), they never won more than 54 games, averaging less than one win every three games, which was a dismal record.

Such a significant improvement has made many fans look forward to the growth of these young players in the next season (2023), which is this year, with even greater anticipation.

The following article will be divided into 9 sections:
(1) Reasons for the Orioles’ significant breakthrough from 2021 to 2022
(2) Personnel changes and reinforcements for the Orioles from 2022 to 2023
(3) Analysis of the Orioles’ starting pitchers for 2023
(4) Analysis of the Orioles’ relief pitchers for 2023
(5) Analysis of the Orioles’ catchers for 2023 (offense and defense)
(6) Analysis of the Orioles’ infielders for 2023 (offense and defense)
(7) Analysis of the Orioles’ outfielders for 2023 (offense and defense)
(8) Overall assessment for 2023
(9) Conclusion

Sections 1-4 will be covered in this article (Part 1), and sections 5-9 will be covered in another article (Part 2).

（１）　Reasons for the Orioles’ significant breakthrough from 2021 to 2022

First, let’s talk about the leap from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 wins in 2022, an improvement of 31 wins. Here are the reasons for such a significant breakthrough:

Below are the Orioles’ hitting, pitching, and defensive rankings in the American League in 2021 (using OPS, ERA, and errors as metrics):
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OPS (hitting): 0.705 (12th in the AL)
ERA (pitching): 5.84 (15th in the AL)
Errors (defense): 74 (3rd in the AL)

Here are the Orioles’ hitting, pitching, and defensive rankings in the American League in 2022:
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OPS (hitting): 0.695 (10th in the AL)
ERA (pitching): 3.97 (10th in the AL)
Errors (defense): 91 (10th in the AL)

From these data, it’s evident that the Orioles’ pitching improved more significantly than their hitting. Even though their OPS decreased compared to the previous year, they reduced their runs allowed from an average of 5.90 per game in 2021 to 4.25 in 2022, a decrease of about 1.65 runs per game.

In fact, in 2022, much discussion about the Orioles centered on a particular individual, the rookie catcher – Adley Rutschman.

Rutschman’s first major league game was on May 21, 2022 (US time), against the Rays. Before this game, the Orioles’ record was 16 wins and 24 losses, ranking last in the AL East. It seemed like another disappointing season, similar to previous years, even worse than their first 40 games in 2021.

However, after Rutschman’s debut, the Orioles’ record was 67 wins and 55 losses, a win rate of 0.549. He played in 113 games in the 2022 season, 93 of which he served as catcher. Last year, the Orioles’ primary catchers were Rutschman and Robinson Chirinos. Looking at basic data, Rutschman’s fielding percentage (0.989) was slightly lower than Chirinos’ (0.994); in terms of caught stealing percentage, Chirinos was slightly better at 31.25% compared to Rutschman’s 30.56%.

However, advanced catching metrics show that Rutschman’s performance far surpassed Chirinos’. This includes Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), where Rutschman had a DRS of 18 compared to Chirinos’ -10. A single-season DRS of 15-20 is considered Gold Glove level. Also, in terms of FRM (Framing Runs), Rutschman scored 9.1, significantly higher than Chirinos’ -14.9, indicating that Rutschman’s advanced

defensive skills and framing were much better. Even in terms of rCERA, which measures a catcher’s effect on the pitching staff’s ERA, Rutschman outperformed Chirinos by 3. It’s noteworthy that Chirinos was the team’s primary catcher before Rutschman was called up.

Moreover, Rutschman’s hitting ability and age (24 years old, compared to Chirinos’ 38) also far exceeded Chirinos’. In 2022, Chirinos played in 38 games, posting a batting line of .179/.265/.287 with an OPS+ of 58, which was quite disappointing. On the other hand, Rutschman’s rookie season batting line was .254/.362/.445 with an OPS+ of 128, the best on the team (second was Ryan Mountcastle at 105). His season WAR of 5.2 was also the highest on the team (second was Cedric Mullins at 3.8). For a player in his first year in the major leagues, these stats are exceptionally good.

It seems that much of the Orioles’ significant improvement focused on Rutschman, even to the extent that he could be considered the man who “saved" the team. Especially since there wasn’t much improvement in hitting and not many changes in pitching personnel, a catcher’s game calling and advanced defensive stats can significantly impact the overall pitching performance, which is precisely where the Orioles showed considerable improvement last year.

（２）　 Personnel changes and reinforcements for the Orioles from 2022 to 2023
(Date: October 6, 2022, to January 5, 2023)

Here’s a summary of the Orioles’ personnel changes and reinforcements up to now:

Declared free agents include:
Richie Martin (second base)
Matt Harvey (starter)
Rico Garcia (reliever)
Louis Head (reliever)
DJ Stewart (outfield)
Alex Wells (reliever)
Jacob Nottingham (designated hitter)
Rougned Odor (second base)
Robinson Chirinos (catcher)
Jesus Aguilar (first base)
Denyi Reyes (reliever)

Many key players from the Orioles have declared free agency this offseason, including second baseman Odor (135 games), catcher Chirinos (67 games), and mid-season acquisitions Aguilar and Phillips, who will enter the free agent market. However, their 2022 performances with the Orioles were not very impressive, with Odor having the highest OPS+ of only 79. This year, the Orioles signed Adam Frazier from the Seattle Mariners, who also exercised free agency. Although his hitting performance this year was not impressive (OPS+ 80), his defensive performance has been stable, and he has had several good hitting seasons in the past.

Looking at players designated for assignment (DFA):
Ryan O’Hearn (designated hitter) (immediately placed after being traded)
Chris Vallimont (reliever)
Tyler Nevin (third base)

Examining the Orioles’ offseason personnel changes, a significant number of players signed minor league contracts, many of whom have not yet reached the major leagues (although there are also some with considerable major league experience). Many of these young players are bullpen pitchers, which is related to the Orioles being a small-market team, primarily relying on minor league trades to acquire young, affordable talent.

The Orioles made some more substantial player trades & signings this offseason:

Kyle Gibson (starting pitcher) – one-year contract

James McCann (catcher) – traded (cash transaction and one player to be named later)

As for the lineup for next year and predictions for key players in various segments, these will be detailed in the following sections.

（３）　Analysis of Orioles’ Starting Pitchers for 2023

Now, let’s look at the analysis of the Orioles’ starting rotation for 2023.

First, let’s review last year’s statistics for Orioles starting pitchers:

Team ERA: 4.35 (21st in the league)
Wins: 41 (21st in the league)
K/9: 6.95 (27th in the league)
BB/9: 2.61 (11th in the league)
HR/9: 1.22 (21st in the league)
FIP: 4.33 (22nd in the league)
WAR: 5.2 (25th in the league)

From these data, it’s clear that even though the Orioles’ pitching has improved significantly, their starting pitchers’ stats are still mostly in the lower ranks of the league, even with fewer wins (41) than the team’s total 83 wins in 2022.

Here is Fangraphs’ predicted rotation for the Orioles (ages are current):
Kyle Gibson (2022 ERA 5.05) (35.2 years old)
Kyle Bradish (2022 ERA 4.90) (26.3 years old)
Dean Kremer (2022 ERA 3.23) (27.0 years old)
Tyler Wells (2022 ERA 4.25) (28.4 years old)
Grayson Rodriguez (no major league record yet) (23.1 years old)

All five of these pitchers are right-handed, with Gibson being the most experienced, while the others have less than three years of experience.

This is likely one of the reasons the Orioles signed Kyle Gibson: although his ERA has been around 5 in recent years, his strikeout ability is not outstanding, and his hit rate is somewhat high, the Orioles’ rotation generally lacks experience, and their stats are not very impressive. Additionally, the team’s more experienced left-handed pitcher, John Means, underwent Tommy John surgery last year and might need a long recovery period.

Dean Kremer, who is projected to have potential in the Orioles’ rotation, pitched 26 games last season with 8 wins and 7 losses, an ERA of 3.23. Although his K/9 value of 6.25 is quite low, he pitched 125 1/3 innings with only 11 home runs allowed. His fastball and curveball spin rates are also quite impressive, especially his curveball, which had a swing-and-miss rate of 31.4% (spin rate 2697), and his control over hitting situations in 2022 improved significantly compared to the previous year, with his walk rate decreasing by 3.6% from the previous year.

Bradish and Wells have only been in the majors for 1-2 years, with relatively shallow experience and ERAs that are considered average. Grayson Rodriguez, who Fangraphs predicts as the fifth starter, has not yet made his major league debut.

Let’s also talk about Grayson Rodriguez’s performance last year in Triple-A. He pitched 69 2/3 innings with a K/9 value of 12.53 and an HR/9 value of only 0.26, achieving 6 wins and 1 loss with an ERA of 2.20. His fastball averaged 95 mph, and his pitches were rated above average in scouting reports. Given his outstanding strikeout performance in Triple-A last year, he is very likely to make his major league debut this year.

However, whether John Means can return to the team next year is still very important. After all, he has achieved results in the past, even making the All-Star team in 2019, and from 2019-2021, his ERA+ was above average for three consecutive years, and he is one of the few left-handed pitchers in the team’s starting rotation. If he is healthy this year, it will significantly benefit the team’s rotation.

（４）　 Analysis of Orioles’ Relief Pitchers for 2023

Now, let’s look at the analysis of the Orioles’ bullpen rotation for 2023.

First, let’s review last year’s statistics for Orioles relief pitchers:

Team ERA: 3.49 (9th in the league)
Wins: 42 (4th in the league)
Saves: 46 (tied for 8th)
K/9: 8.47 (22nd in the league)
BB/9: 3.00 (4th in the league)
HR/9: 0.88 (9th in the league)
FIP: 3.65 (11th in the league)
WAR: 4.7 (10th in the league)

From these data, it’s clear that the Orioles’ bullpen performed quite well, except for a relatively low strikeout rate, with all other stats being above average in the league, even ranking in the top five for walk rate. Out of the season’s 83 wins, 42 came from relief pitchers.

Here is Fangraphs’ predicted bullpen rotation for the Orioles (ages are current):
Felix Bautista (2022 ERA 2.19) (27.5 years old)
Dillon Tate (2022 ERA 3.05) (28.7 years old)
Mychal Givens (2022 ERA 3.38) (32.6 years old)
Cionel Perez (2022 ERA 1.40) (26.7 years old)
Bryan Baker (2022 ERA 3.49) (28.1 years old)
Keegan Akin (2022 ERA 3.20) (27.8 years old)
Andrew Politi (no major league record yet) (26.6 years old)
Austin Voth (2022 ERA 4.34) (30.5 years old)

From the data above, we can see that most of the projected main bullpen pitchers for the Orioles this year are between 27 and 29 years old. Out of these 8 pitchers, 7 who have played have an ERA lower than the league average, except for Austin Voth, and 2 have an ERA below 3, a phenomenon rarely seen in the Orioles in recent years.

Felix Bautista is still projected to be the Orioles’ closer. His overall rating in Fangraphs for 2023 is 15th among all pitchers, with many of his stats ranking quite high in the league last year. His fastball average speed reached 99.2 mph (7th in all major leagues). His performance last year was outstanding, with a strikeout rate of 34.8%, meaning he struck out more than one batter for every three faced. His overall batting average against was only 0.167, and this season he achieved 15 saves and 13 holds, with only 2 blown saves.

Additionally, left-handed reliever Cionel Perez also had an impressive performance last year, with an ERA of just 1.40. He was especially outstanding at home, where he pitched 31 1/3 innings and allowed only one run, an ERA of 0.29, which is quite a difference from his road ERA of 2.75 (although his road ERA is also quite good). Having such a reliable and high-performing left-handed reliever is very advantageous for the Orioles’ 2023 season.

The rest of the bullpen’s performance is generally stable, and among these 8 pitchers, one has not yet made his major league debut. He was selected through the Rule 5 draft on December 7 (US time) last year, Andrew Politi. Last year, he appeared in 38 games in Triple-A (Worcester) for the Red Sox, posting an ERA of 2.41 with a high strikeout rate of 10.12, allowing only 38 hits in 56 innings pitched, and achieving 4 saves. Based on his performance data, it’s very likely he will have a chance to make his major league debut this year.

Regarding Mychal Givens, he has also played for the Orioles in the past, even being selected by the Orioles in the second round of the June 2009 amateur draft. He made his major league debut in 2015, appearing in 22 games with an impressive ERA of 1.80 and an ERA+ of 230. Subsequently, from 2016 to 2019, he appeared in over 50 games each season for the Orioles, with an ERA+ consistently over 100.

Although he was traded from the Cubs to the Mets last year and did not perform well with the Mets (ERA+ of only 82 during his time with the Mets), he is a durable reliever with more strikeout ability than most current Orioles pitchers (last year’s K/9 was 10.4), which will be very helpful for the depth of the Orioles’ bullpen.

This concludes the analysis of the 2023 Orioles’ outlook for now. The next article (Part 2) will discuss the analysis of the 2023 Orioles’ catchers, infielders, outfielders, overall assessment, and conclusion.

Sources:
Fangraphs
Baseball Savant
Baseball Reference
CBS Sports